Another Stormy, Stuck Pattern Bringing Days of Rain to the South, Midwest and Plains

weather.com meteorologists

Published: May 26,2020

A stagnant weather pattern with rounds of heavy rain-producing thunderstorms will soak parts of the Midwest, Plains and South this week, increasing the threat of more flash flooding.

This soaking setup is from a stalled north-to-south frontal system over the central U.S. and another slow-moving upper low setting up over the South. Adding to the wet setup is a tropical disturbance lifting northward from Florida into the Carolinas.

(MORE: Notice the Weather Moving Slower? There's a Reason For That)

The overall pattern setting up for the last week of May includes another slow-moving upper-level low-pressure system tapping moisture into the Plains and Mississippi Valley, leading to areas of thunderstorms with locally heavy rain.

Flood Threat

This wet weather pattern has already produced flash flooding since Memorial Day weekend.

Multiple water rescues were reported Tuesday morning in Las Lomas, Texas, on the border with Mexico.

Water rescues were also reported late Sunday night because of flash flooding in the San Antonio metro area. Another water rescue was reported Monday afternoon due to flash flooding in Bell County, Kentucky.

Current Radar, Watches and Warnings

Our latest rainfall forecast through Friday indicates areas from the Plains and Midwest into parts of the Southeast could pick up at least an inch of rain. But there will be localized heavier totals where individual thunderstorms stall for a period of time.

Locally heavy rain is also possible over the southeastern states as the previously mentioned upper low helps to lift a disturbance northward over the region from Florida.

Given the slow-moving nature of the overall weather pattern, any clusters of thunderstorms that stall for a period of a few hours are capable of quickly triggering flash flooding in these areas.

Rainfall Outlook

The Ozarks of southwestern Missouri, western Arkansas and eastern Oklahoma is one area where the flash-flood potential is higher. The ground there is soaked enough that soil moisture is in the 99th percentile for this time of year, according to a NOAA analysis, following heavy rain the week after Mother's Day. Any rain that falls in these areas will quickly run off, rather than first soak into the ground.

The National Weather Service has issued flood watches for parts of Arkansas through Wednesday evening.

(MORE: We're Heading Into the Prime Time of Year For Flash Flooding)

Flood Alerts

Fortunately for the rain-weary Great Lakes, while at least isolated or scattered thunderstorms are in the forecast through most of this week, the threat of heavy rainfall is much lower there.

In a few areas, the rain, assuming it isn't an excessive deluge, is welcome news. Drought continues to plague parts of the Central and Southern Plains, South Texas and the northern Gulf Coast.

The Weather Company’s primary journalistic mission is to report on breaking weather news, the environment and the importance of science to our lives. This story does not necessarily represent the position of our parent company, IBM.

The Weather Company’s primary journalistic mission is to report on breaking weather news, the environment and the importance of science to our lives. This story does not necessarily represent the position of our parent company, IBM.