Louisiana, Mississippi Highest Drought Level Is Their Most Widespread In 23 Years

 Jonathan Erdman

Published: October 26, 2023

Louisiana and Mississippi are experiencing their most widespread "exceptional" drought in more than two decades as other parts of the Southeast have seen a rapidly developing flash drought this fall.

Not your ordinary drought: According to the latest Drought Monitor analysis released Thursday, just over two-thirds of Louisiana has been classified in exceptional drought, the highest level. That's the state's most widespread exceptional drought in the 23-year-plus history of the Drought Monitor.

I​n recent weeks, Mississippi's highest level of drought has also grown to encompass almost one-third of the state, the most widespread in the Magnolia State since October 2000.

Fires, a saltwater wedge and superfog: What resulted was one of the wettest states in the U.S., Louisiana, had its most prolific wildfire season, including fires in swamps.

Record low Mississippi River levels upstream due to the drought from the Missouri Bootheel to Memphis and parts of Arkansas and Mississippi allowed a wedge of saltwater to ooze upriver from the Gulf of Mexico, threatening water supplies in parts of southern Louisiana.

Then Monday, a mix of dense fog and smoke from fires burning in marshes was blamed in a deadly multivehicle wreck on Interstate 55 in southeast Louisiana.

Kevin Johnson walks through forest burnt from a wildfire behind his home in Leesville, Louisiana, on September 13, 2023.

H​ow we got here: Persistent domes of high pressure have been in place over the Deep South from Florida to Texas in 2023, particularly in summer. Sinking air from those high-pressure areas have led to persistent heat and a lack of rainfall.

T​hrough September, 2023 has been the warmest first nine months of any year since 1895 in Louisiana, Mississippi, Texas and Florida, according to NOAA.

A​nd some of the largest precipitation deficits anywhere in the U.S. are in Louisiana. It's New Orleans' second driest year-to-date, where they've picked up almost 27 inches less than average rainfall so far in 2023.

2023 year-to-date precipitation departures from average through the morning of Oct. 26 shows much of southern and central Louisiana into southern Mississippi and extreme east Texas with large deficits.

T​here's a new flash drought, too: It's not just the lower Mississippi Valley, either.

D​rought has developed this fall in the Tennessee Valley, including Tennessee, northern Alabama, northern Georgia and the western Carolinas.

I​t's developed so quickly that it's considered a flash drought,​ one that develops on the order of weeks, rather than months.

The change in drought status from late Sept. to late Oct. 2023 shows the development of the flash drought in the Tennessee Valley.

T​here's relief ahead, but you may have to wait: In the short term, there's not much relief ahead for either the exceptional or flash drought areas.

B​ut the current El Niño offers some optimism this winter. Generally speaking, winters during El Niño, particularly stronger ones, tend to be wet across the South and Gulf Coast.

N​OAA's latest seasonal drought outlook released on Oct. 19 calls for much of the South drought area to either "improve" or "end" by the end of January.

T​his offers some hope that the expansive southern drought may be eroded significantly by next spring, if this winter follows the typical El Niño script.

Jonathan Erdman is a senior meteorologist at weather.com and has been covering national and international weather since 1996. His lifelong love of meteorology began with a close encounter from a tornado as a child in Wisconsin. He studied physics at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, then completed his Master's degree working with dual-polarization radar and lightning data at Colorado State University. Extreme and bizarre weather are his favorite topics. Reach out to him on X/Twitter, Facebook and Threads. 

The Weather Company’s primary journalistic mission is to report on breaking weather news, the environment and the importance of science to our lives. This story does not necessarily represent the position of our parent company, IBM.

The Weather Company’s primary journalistic mission is to report on breaking weather news, the environment and the importance of science to our lives. This story does not necessarily represent the position of our parent company, IBM.