WINTER WEATHER Updated Jan. 30, 2020 9:02 PM
One storm with rain and snow will sideswipe the coastal Northeast on Saturday, and even though a blockbuster event is not anticipated, slippery conditions will still develop in some areas as a second storm sweeps in from the west.
AccuWeather meteorologists believe a storm from the Gulf of Mexico no longer poses a threat for heavy snow for most of the northeastern United States.
There are some key definitive factors that are likely to eliminate the chance of a big snowfall in the Northeast. The snow drought is expected to continue in the mid-Atlantic region, and the pair of storms this weekend is not likely to bring much in the way of snow to southern New England and the central Appalachians.
Temperatures will be near or above freezing in most areas that would have the best chance of snow on the western fringe of the storm in the mid-Atlantic and in southern New England.
In order for a big snowstorm in the Northeast to materialize, cold air must hold its ground to allow the storm system to crank out snow instead of rain or a mix of rain and snow. However, an area of high pressure sliding eastward from Quebec looks poised win out this weekend.
In the case of the weekend storm, the air is not that cold to begin with and it appears as though it will retreat.
As the Gulf of Mexico storm begins to shift northeastward late this week, rain will first gather in the Southern states on Friday.
The rain can be heavy enough to slow motorists down in the South. During Friday night to Saturday morning, rain will then roll northeastward and extend to the lower part of the mid-Atlantic region.
For a time during Friday night and Saturday, it is still possible that precipitation will reach far enough to the northwest to allow a little rain and wet snow mix or wet snow that would generally melt on roads and sidewalks in the swath from Washington, D.C., to Baltimore, Philadelphia, New York City and Boston.
Only if the storm were to strengthen quickly and jog a bit more to the west might the upper mid-Atlantic coast and southeastern New England receive a period of accumulating wet snow. Currently, that scenario looks unlikely.
A pocket of dry air that develops west of the storm is expect to may prevent accumulating snow in much of the region from the Southern storm.
At nearly the same time, a second storm is forecast to rotate southeastward from the Great Lakes region spanning Saturday to early Sunday. It is this storm that will help to kick the coastal storm out to sea and prevent a heavy amount of snow along the majority of Atlantic Seaboard.
In lieu of a big East Coast snowstorm, snow associated with this second storm from the Upper Midwest will still bring some issues.
Once again, marginal temperatures will be a factor in limiting the amount of snow that accumulates, especially on paved surfaces during the midday and afternoon hours.
This second storm, although weak, has the potential to bring up to a few inches of snow on grassy and elevated surfaces from the central Great Lakes to the central Appalachians. However, a coating to an inch or two of snow is more likely. Where the snow falls at night to the start of the day Sunday, mainly over the central Appalachians, roads can become snow-covered.
There is a good chance that snow will be falling or will have just finished on Sunday morning when Punxsutawney Phil is pulled from his den to make his famed prognostication for the rest of the winter.
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A period of snow, perhaps mixed with rain, can extend all the way to the mid-Atlantic coast late Saturday night to Sunday morning. People venturing out in the Interstate-95 mid-Atlantic corridor may have to sweep some snow off their vehicles and watch for slippery spots on their travels first thing Sunday morning before sunshine returns.
The second storm from the Midwest is likely to miss New England.
The takeaway for the weekend outlook is that rather than one big blockbuster storm, pieces of storms will be scattered about the region with some wintry impacts on travel here and there. Rather than one storm hitting a home run in terms of snowfall, two storms will take swings and hit foul balls.
By the way, MLB pitchers and catchers report for spring workouts spanning Feb. 10-14, and a warmup is forecast to follow the weekend storms during early next week. However, it is too early to write off winter and big snowstorms just yet -- AccuWeather has the scoop on Punxsutawney Phil in this early spring preview.
Keep checking back on AccuWeather.com and stay tuned to the AccuWeather Network on DirecTV, Frontier and Verizon Fios.
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