AccuWeather forecasters scoop Punxsutawney Phil's Groundhog Day prediction

By Jillian MacMath, AccuWeather staff writer

WINTER WEATHER Updated Jan. 30, 2020 11:42 AM

Punxsutawney Phil will make his famed prognostication on Sunday, Feb. 2, but AccuWeather is one step ahead as meteorologists reveal which parts of the United States will get six more weeks of winter -- and which areas can expect an early taste of spring.

“For most of the country, there really has not been much of a winter,” AccuWeather senior meteorologist Dave Samuhel said. “In fact, we had one of the warmest Januarys in history across the country.”

“But, there have been some changes over the past week which could be a sign that the pattern will be changing after Groundhog Day, meaning February and early March can still deliver plenty of cold and snow across the U.S.,” he said.

Thus, AccuWeather meteorologists are calling for seasonable winter weather to continue across most of the U.S. However, there is one region that will be the exception, where the next six weeks will bring warmer air and drier conditions.

That will not be the case for the northeastern part of the country. After winter was slow to get underway in the Northeast, and was seemingly interrupted in the first half of January by a record warm spell, it may be difficult to get rid of it.

Groundhog Club co-handler A.J. Dereume holds Punxsutawney Phil, the weather prognosticating groundhog, during the 133rd celebration of Groundhog Day on Gobbler's Knob in Punxsutawney, Pa. Saturday, Feb. 2, 2019. Phil's handlers said that the groundhog has forecast an early spring. (AP Photo/Gene J. Puskar)

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“A stormy pattern will couple with cold air in Canada to produce colder and snowier-than-average conditions through the first couple weeks of March,” Samuhel said.

Forecasters predict spring weather won't get underway in earnest until April, when high temperatures will climb above normal across the region. 

In the Southeast, spring typically doesn’t wait long to arrive, but this year, temperatures may bounce back and forth early on. 

“There will be some spells of springlike temperatures in late February and March,” Samuhel said. “Overall, temperatures will likely be a little above normal over the next six weeks.” 

However, there will be active weather with above-normal precipitation in most areas -- Florida being the exception. 

In early February, cold air lurking to the north could clash with this moisture to bring snow to places like the western Carolinas and Appalachians.

Across the Plains and Midwest, winter weather has been more frequent than in the rest of the country, and this will continue into March.

“Temperatures may not be much below normal, but the weather pattern will be fairly active with near- to above-normal precipitation, a lot of which can fall as snow,” Samuhel said.

In the West, the pattern has varied widely this winter, and February will bring additional changes.

“The strong Pacific jet stream that has pounded the Pacific Northwest will weaken and lift northward, allowing drier conditions. Meanwhile, a southern branch of the jet stream should form and deliver bouts of rain to the Southwest,” Samuhel pointed out. 

Overall, the West will be warmer over the next six weeks, so an early spring seems likely for most, he added. 

AccuWeather.com’s full U.S. spring forecast will be released Feb. 5, 2020.

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