Updated Oct. 15, 2019 8:34 AM
A large swath of southern Mexico will be at risk for flooding as a potential tropical storm tracks just offshore this week.
AccuWeather meteorologists are currently monitoring a large area of showers and thunderstorms located south of Mexico and west of Central America that will attempt to become better organized as it moves northwestward this week.
Moving through an area favorable for development with warm ocean water temperatures and low wind shear will provide a several-day period for potential development.
"Development into a tropical depression is possible as early as late Tuesday afternoon or Tuesday as the tropical threat tracks off the coast of southern Mexico," said AccuWeather Tropical Expert Dan Kottlowski.
Additional strengthening would be possible into late week, allowing this threat to potentially reach tropical storm strength.
If the storm is given a name, it will be called Octave.
Satellite image showing a large area of showers and thunderstorms becoming better organized to the south of Mexico on Tuesday.
Regardless of how strong this tropical threat becomes, heavy rainfall will be a widespread concern across southern Mexico into Friday.
The heavy rainfall will expand northwestward as the week progresses, affecting locations from Salina Cruz to Puerto Vallarta.
Tuesday's downpours will be focused on southern Chiapas and Oaxaca before spreading into southern Guerrero Tuesday night and Wednesday.
From Thursday into Friday, downpours will continue across Oaxaca and Guerrero, but will also drench parts of Michoacan, Colima and Jalisco.
Total rainfall through Friday will average 75-150 mm (3-6 inches) with an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 300 mm (12 inches).
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Flash flooding and travel disruptions are possible during the heaviest rainfall. Mudslides will also be a concern as downpours fall for several consecutive days in the same locations.
This tropical threat will also stir up rough seas and result in high surf and rip currents in coastal locations.
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