Updated Oct. 15, 2019 7:38 AM
The northeast monsoon is set to commence this week, bringing vital rainfall to parts of southeast India.
Above-normal rainfall in recent months has alleviated dire water shortages in Tamil Nadu; however, rainfall from October into December is essential for next year's water supplies.
Prior to the recent uptick in rainfall across southeast India, a prolonged drought had forced water rationing and extreme measures to be taken in order to ensure water continued to flow in Chennai, home to roughly 10 million people.
In this Wednesday, July 17, 2019, photo, workers fill train wagons with drinking water piped in from the Mettur dam on the Cauvery River, at Jolarpet railway station, about 216 kilometers (135 miles) from Chennai in Southern Indian state of Tamil Nadu. On its daily sojourn, the 50-tank train carries two and a half million liters of drinking water, a small but critical source for Chennai’s water board, which is employing an army of trucks to deliver 500 million liters of water a day since desiccated reservoirs and fast-diminishing groundwater forced the city to ration public tap water to millions of users for months. (AP Photo/Manish Swarup)
Conditions worsened to the point that a train was used to transport water to the city from more than 200 km (125 miles) away in order prevent a water shortage disaster.
That train finally made its final voyage on Oct. 8 after officials declared that recent rainfall had replenished soil moisture.
A prolonged southwest monsoon has resulted in the Krishna River flowing steadily and water being diverted into the Poondi reservoir, a vital water source for Chennai.
Rain returned to Chennai on Tuesday night as a thunderstorm brought a burst of heavy rainfall.
Downpours are forecast to become more widespread across Tamil Nadu and neighboring parts of Andhra Pradesh in the coming days, bringing more beneficial rainfall to the region.
"The northeast monsoon is likely to officially begin on Thursday, despite downpours already falling across southeast India," said AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Jason Nicholls.
Tamil Nadu and southern Andhra Pradesh receive roughly 70 percent of their yearly rainfall from October to mid-December, making rainfall during this period essential to future water supplies during the following year.
While this week's rainfall will be largely welcome, there will be the risk for local flooding and travel disruptions during the heaviest downpours.
A man carries a dog and wades through a flooded street in Chennai, in the southern Indian state of Tamil Nadu, Wednesday, Dec. 2, 2015. (AP Photo)
Another concern is that an early start to the monsoon season will elevate the risk for flooding as the season continues into December.
"Near-normal rainfall is expected across Andhra Pradesh and northern Tamil Nadu, with above-normal rainfall in southern Tamil Nadu," said Nicholls.
One wildcard will be the risk for tropical cyclones in the Bay of Bengal.
"The greatest risk for tropical cyclones to develop will be from late October through November," said Nicholls.
These storms can bring tremendous amounts of rainfall and cause significant flooding.
While Nicholls expects these storms to generally track northward toward Bangladesh or Myanmar, a direct hit on southeast India cannot be ruled out and may result in well above-normal seasonal rainfall for the region impacted.
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