Updated Oct. 15, 2019 9:52 AM
A fast-moving storm from western Canada is forecast to strengthen rapidly and is poised to bring a dose of drenching rain, strong winds and even some high-elevation snow to the northeastern United States from Wednesday to Thursday.
The storm may neither strengthen quickly enough to be classified as a bomb cyclone, nor may there be enough northeasterly winds over a broad for it to be considered a true nor'easter. The barometric pressure has to fall 24 millibars or 0.71 inches in 24 hours for the bomb cyclone criteria to be met. Winds on the front side of the storm may be from the east or southeast instead of from the northeast.
However, the storm will pack a heavy punch.
The storm's swift forward speed will generally limit drenching rainfall to part of the daylight hours on Wednesday in the central Appalachians and eastern Great Lakes region. In these areas, between 0.25 and 0.75 of an inch of rain is likely.
"However, farther to the east, more moisture may be available, and the storm may have time to strengthen enough to slow down and produce significantly heavier rainfall," Brett Rossio, AccuWeather meteorologist, said.
Rain in parts of the lower mid-Atlantic coast and northern New England is likely to average 1-2 inches. A general 2-3 inches of rain is anticipated from northern New Jersey and eastern New York state to southern and central New England, where an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 4 inches is most likely to be achieved.
The weather for the scheduled ALCS game in New York City during Wednesday evening is likely to be stormy with drenching rain and gusty wind.
While the weather for Tuesday evening's NLCS game in Washington, D.C., should be fine, if the series goes to game 5 scheduled for Wednesday afternoon, rain and thunderstorms are in the forecast.
From the standpoint of abnormally dry to moderate drought conditions, the rainfall will be welcomed.
However, enough rain can fall at the local level in some urban areas to cause minor street and poor-drainage area flooding, which can slow travel.
Where leaves are falling or have recently fell in wooded areas, the wet pavement can make for especially slick conditions on secondary roads. In some cases, fallen leaves can block storm drains.
"We believe wind will be significant in some locations from the storm," Rossio said.
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Since this storm will strengthen as it moves along, gusts may be strong enough to break tree limbs, cause sporadic power outages and knock a considerable amount of leaves off the trees in areas where leaf color is peaking or past peak.
"We expect gusts around New York City to range from 40-50 mph, but gusts between 50 and 60 mph are likely in central and southeastern New England," Rossio said.
Winds that strong can lead to flight delays and lead to travel restrictions over some of the high bridges in the region. Construction cranes may need to be secured.
The strongest winds over the eastern Great Lakes, central Appalachians and mid-Atlantic coast are likely to occur on the back side of the storm from Wednesday night through Thursday and will generally be blowing from the west and northwest with most gusts between 35 and 45 mph.
However, New England can get strong winds on both the front and back side of the storm. Winds are likely to increase from the east from Wednesday to Thursday, then flip around to the west and northwest from Thursday to Friday.
"The strong easterly winds on the front side can lead to a period of above-normal tides and coastal flooding in eastern New England," Rossio said.
The shifting winds could also knock over some large or poorly-rooted trees and lead to property damage in New England.
As cold air charges in on the back side of the storm, a change to snow is likely in the higher elevations of the Adirondacks and Green and White mountains from northern New York state to northern New England from Thursday to Thursday night. It is possible the highest terrain picks up a few inches of snow.
In terms of how the air feels, the coldest air of the season so far will rotate in following the storm.
Gusty winds are likely to cause AccuWeather RealFeel® Temperatures to run 10-20 degrees Fahrenheit lower than the actual temperature from Thursday to Friday.
This means that RealFeel® Temperatures may dip into the 20s and lower 30s over the central Appalachians and eastern Great Lakes region and to the 30s and 40s near the mid-Atlantic coast.
As winds diminish Friday night, temperatures are likely to dip to frosty levels over the interior mid-Atlantic with a freeze possible for the higher terrain of northern New York state and northern New England.
In most cases, the frost and freeze will not occur in areas that have not yet experienced temperatures at this level. However, there can be some exceptions where a frost occurs in locations that have avoided a growing season ending event in parts of the mid-Atlantic and central New England.
A few locations may equal or dip slightly lower than their lowest point so far this season in terms of actual temperature by Saturday morning.
That mark is 34 F in Pittsburgh, 42 in Boston, 45 in New York City, 46 in Philadelphia and 49 in Washington, D.C.
Temperatures are forecast to rebound for several days late this weekend and into next week before much colder air sweeps in prior to the end of October.
Download the free AccuWeather app to see the latest forecast for your region. Keep checking back for updates on AccuWeather.com and stay tuned to the AccuWeather Network on DirecTV, Frontier and Verizon Fios.
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