Updated Oct. 15, 2019 7:30 AM
A new tropical system has taken shape off the west coast of Africa and has the potential to become the next tropical storm of the 2019 Atlantic hurricane season as it passes through the Cabo Verde Islands this week.
Late Monday afternoon, Tropical Depression Fifteen developed and could strengthen into a named tropical storm by Tuesday afternoon.
This image, taken on Monday, Oct. 14, 2019, shows much of the tropical Atlantic Basin. A swirl of clouds can be seen in the far right of the image, which represents Tropical Depression Fifteen off the coast of Africa and may become Tropical Storm Nester in the coming days. Meanwhile, a large batch of showers and thunderstorms extended from Central America to the central Caribbean over the far left. (NOAA/GOES-East)
The next name on the list of tropical storms in the Atlantic Basin for 2019 is Nestor.
"It is rare to have a system ramp up quickly in this part of the Atlantic this late in the season," Dan Kottlowski, AccuWeather's top hurricane expert, said.
"Typically, conditions are quite hostile for development in this area of the Atlantic during the middle of October, but there is currently little wind shear present and water is sustainably warm," Kottlowski added.
The system is forecast to track northwestward on a path that will take it over part of the Cabo Verde Islands during the middle days of this week.
It may do so as a tropical storm.
People and travel interests on the islands should be prepared for flight and cruise disruptions. Drenching downpours, gusty thunderstorms and building seas are anticipated. There is the risk of flash flooding and mudslides from excessive rainfall. Surf may become too dangerous for swimming.
"Once the system moves northwest of the Cabo Verde Islands on Thursday, we anticipate it to track more to the west, be subject to increasing wind shear and encounter cooler waters," according to Kottlowski.
"These factors should cause the system to weaken late this week," he added.
Melissa formed as a subtropical storm on Friday and transitioned to a full tropical system over the weekend, but lost tropical characteristics over cool waters as anticipated on Monday.
Farther southwest, a broad area of disturbed weather over Central America bears watching later this week.
A tropical system may develop over the western Gulf of Mexico late this week.
Regardless of development, that feature may cause a blossoming area of showers and thunderstorms over the Gulf and along the western and central Gulf coast later this week into this weekend.
The Atlantic hurricane season continues through the end of November.
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There may be additional named storms over the basin in the coming weeks. Following Nestor, the next names on the list of tropical storms are Olga and Pablo.
Download the free AccuWeather app to see the latest track maps and advisories for tropical systems all across the globe. Keep checking back for updates on AccuWeather.com and stay tuned to the AccuWeather Network on DirecTV, Frontier and Verizon Fios.
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