AccuWeather meteorologists warn a tropical storm or hurricane could make landfall in Florida next week as conditions in the Gulf of Mexico foster quick development of a new system.
Published Aug 25, 2023 11:47 AM EDT | Updated Aug 25, 2023 8:32 PM EDT
A tropical system may soon be on the doorstep of the Gulf Coast in an area that AccuWeather meteorologists have been monitoring closely since mid-August. Steering breezes are likely to quickly direct the budding system, which could evolve into a hurricane, toward the west coast of the Florida Peninsula prior to the middle of the new week.
Current conditions are suppressing organized tropical development in the western Caribbean and the western Gulf of Mexico, but a significant change Sunday into Monday will bring the potential for a named storm to develop, strengthen and eventually make landfall in the United States.
In this wide-view image of the Gulf of Mexico, northern Caribbean Sea and southwest Atlantic, a budding tropical system can be seen over Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula (left of center) and Franklin appears to the right. The Florida Peninsula is located in the upper center. (Friday evening, Aug. 25, 2023/AccuWeather Enhanced RealVue™ satellite)
A broad area of low pressure near Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula will begin to foster an area of localized downpours and gusty thunderstorms from southeastern Mexico to western Cuba and adjacent waters of the northwestern Caribbean and southern Gulf of Mexico.
A significant amount of wind shear will be in place over this zone and is likely to inhibit rapid organization and strengthening during the first part of the weekend, AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Adam Douty said.
Wind shear is a strong breeze from one direction or changing directions that can often have a negative impact on tropical systems.
"However, as the same wind shear begins to steer the system northeastward from Monday to Tuesday, the shear will weaken relative to the storm and become less of a negative impact," Douty explained.
"As this happens, rapid development and strengthening could take place in the eastern Gulf of Mexico where the feature transitions from a tropical depression to a Category 1 hurricane in the span of 24 hours," Douty warned.
A tropical depression has a defined circulation with maximum sustained winds of 35-38 mph. A tropical storm is much better organized and has maximum winds ranging from 39-73 mph. A Category 1 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale has sustained winds of 74-95 mph.
Water temperatures are quite high in the eastern Gulf and generally range from the middle 80s to near 90 F. AccuWeather has noted early on during the hurricane season that any tropical system that ventures into these waters has a significant chance of strengthening rapidly.
The next name on the list of tropical storms for the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season is Idalia. Should a new tropical system elsewhere in the Atlantic basin form before the disturbance in the Gulf develops, Jose would be the next name used.
Interests in the area from southeastern Mexico and western Cuba to the U.S. north-central and eastern Gulf coast should closely monitor the progress of the future development and track of this tropical system.
Beginning this weekend and continuing into Monday, clusters of heavy rain and severe thunderstorms will slowly consolidate and could pose dangers from flash flooding and damaging winds from parts of southeastern Mexico to western Cuba. Similarly heavy squalls that develop over the nearby waters may be a risk to small craft.
To raise public awareness of this near-coast tropical threat, AccuWeather meteorologists will begin to refer to the system as a tropical rainstorm and have initiated a track map Friday afternoon.
At this early stage, the system could track in anywhere from Naples, Florida, to Mobile, Alabama. More information will be known once the center of the storm forms near the Yucatan Peninsula.
Conditions are likely to deteriorate over the eastern Gulf of Mexico from the Florida Keys to much of the west coast of the Florida Peninsula and northward to part of the coastline of the Florida Panhandle from Monday to Tuesday night. How significant winds, wave action and storm surge get as well as where the heaviest rains evolve will depend on the track and intensity of the tropical system.
A weaker system will tend to be more sprawled out and may affect a broad area with localized flash flooding in Florida. A quickly strengthening system is likely to be more compact with an area of damaging winds, storm surge and flooding rain in part of the Florida Peninsula and part of the Florida mainland from Tuesday to Wednesday.
At this time, people along the Gulf coast of Florida to the Alabama Panhandle should review their preparation with the chance of a landfalling tropical system from Tuesday night to early Wednesday. However, rain, thunderstorms, gusty winds and building seas will likely precede the arrival of the tropical system by 12 hours or more.
Enough rain, perhaps several inches or more, may fall to lead to areas of inland flooding in low-lying areas beginning as early as Tuesday in central and northern Florida, according to AccuWeather Senior Storm Warning Meteorologist Eddie Walker.
"Tropical-storm-force winds with gusts ranging from 40-60 mph are likely in much of northern and central Florida with stronger gusts of 60-80 mph along part of the central and northern Florida Gulf coast," Walker said. "These conditions could shift westward or southward and could be worse, depending on the intensity and track of the tropical system from Tuesday to Wednesday."
Travel conditions are likely to deteriorate with the potential for significant airline delays with flights coming into and departing central and northern Florida from Tuesday to Wednesday.
Steering breezes are likely to carry the system northeastward perhaps along the southern Atlantic coast from Wednesday night to Thursday.
Should the system emerge over warm Gulf Stream Atlantic waters along the southeastern coast of the U.S. by Thursday, re-organization and further strengthening is possible. However, should the system remain over land, a gradual loss of wind intensity would occur and drenching rain may initiate flooding over the southeastern U.S. mainland.
Simultaneously, a weather front will stall over the mainland of the Southeast from Monday to Wednesday. Localized flooding downpours and gusty thunderstorms are likely to occur well away from the track of the tropical system from the panhandles of Mississippi, Alabama and Florida to Georgia and the Carolinas. Airline delays and slow travel on the highways in this zone is likely.
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