AccuWeather forecasters are monitoring at least three tropical waves for potential tropical development across the Atlantic Ocean into early next week. Will one claim the next storm name on the 2023 list?
Published Aug 16, 2023 11:52 AM EDT | Updated Aug 16, 2023 7:11 PM EDT
As the second half of August commences, AccuWeather meteorologists say that they are monitoring three main areas of interest across the Atlantic basin for potential tropical development.
Chances for Atlantic development could escalate through this weekend
Clusters of showers and thunderstorms along several tropical waves are on track to move westward across the basin in the coming days. Two zones located in the Eastern Atlantic waters currently stand the best chances for developing into noteworthy tropical systems from late week through this weekend.
Through the end of the weekend, the tropical wave emerging off the coast of Africa near the Cabo Verde Islands will have a medium chance of tropical development as it shifts through a region of relatively low wind shear and a moist pocket of air.
Another tropical wave located over open waters in the Central Atlantic also has a medium chance for tropical development from late this week into the weekend. Pockets of thunderstorms will slowly shift westward across the basin and gradually can become more organized in the coming days and transition into a tropical depression.
The next tropical storm that develops in the Atlantic basin would claim the name Emily.
Potential for rapid development in the Gulf
A separate area in the central and western Gulf of Mexico is being closely watched for potential formation that could take place early next week. An area of low pressure could form in the Gulf during this time frame and slowly shift westward and approach land by the middle of next week. Regardless of development, areas of northeast Mexico and southeastern Texas can face an uptick of tropical moisture from the middle to late part of next week.
"This feature will not have much time to develop before it likely moves into Texas, though it will be moving across very warm water which can aid in rapid development," explained AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Dan Pydynowski.
Throughout much of July and the first half of August, the pattern across the South Central states has created a precedent of very hot and arid weather. So far in August, residents across the Houston metro have not observed a drop of rain. Any moisture that can be steered into the region will be beneficial to the drought situation and help to replenish area reservoirs and lakes.
Tropical wave to bring influx of moisture to Florida
As energy transitions across the Atlantic Ocean, forecasters say that moisture may make its way to areas of central and South Florida. Locations across the Florida Peninsula from Tampa to Fort Myers are currently facing levels of moderate to extreme drought, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor.
Through this weekend, chances for rain and thunderstorms will gradually increase across Florida as the tropical wave shifts westward. Regardless of tropical development, much-needed moisture will expand into regions across the peninsula in the form of widespread showers and thunderstorms.
Storms will even douse areas along the west coast of the state currently facing dry conditions. However, locations in central and eastern Florida may face local urban and flash flooding as a result of frequent showers and storms.
In addition the influx of moisture, Florida residents may notice some relief from the heat in the coming days. Cities such as Tampa and Miami, Florida, have been running between 3-4 degrees above historical averages so far this August and may soon have daytime temperatures a degree or so shy of the 90-degree Fahrenheit mark as the pattern switches gears.
The Atlantic basin is not the only region AccuWeather meteorologists are watching closely. Multiple systems were afoot in the Pacific including newly formed Tropical Storm Hilary.
This system will peak just off the coast of Mexico as a major hurricane and may bring historic rain and flooding from Southern California to Arizona starting this weekend, AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Alex Sosnowski said.
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