A dome of heat will remain parked over the south-central U.S. with soaring temperatures -- some of the hottest expected this summer -- as repeated downpours erupt along the northern edge of heat.
Published Jul 31, 2023 2:38 PM EDT | Updated Jul 31, 2023 3:26 PM EDT
As a heat dome persists over the south-central United States, rounds of storms will repeatedly pound areas farther north across the Plains and Mississippi Valley this week. Severe weather and flash flooding are among the dangers of the stormy weather pattern, AccuWeather meteorologists warn.
The Central states will be essentially split into two parts with one zone remaining dry and hot, while the other zone stays somewhat cooler, but also stormy at times.
Blistering heat to continue in Texas
Texas will continue to broil under a dome of high pressure this week that has been prevalent much of this summer.
Houston will experience its highest temperatures of the summer so far with multiple days at or above 100 this week. The hottest days of the week are likely to occur through Tuesday with highs of 101 to 104 forecast. The duration of extreme temperatures will push AccuWeather's new HeatWave Counter and Severity Index™ to a 13 in Houston, which is severe.
AccuWeather's exclusive HeatWave Counter and Severity Index™ quantifies and measures the duration and intensity of heat.
Dallas, San Antonio and a host of Texas cities, as well as much of Oklahoma and western Louisiana, may experience the highest temperature readings of the summer this week as temperatures reach the triple digits.
Temperatures much of this week will run 5-10 degrees above the historical average in the low to mid-90s.
Rounds of severe storms to target central Plains, Upper Midwest
This week will be a busy one in terms of showers and thunderstorms for areas north of the heat dome.
"Waves of energy will ride around the edge of the heat dome through this week," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Courtney Travis said.
Complexes of thunderstorms will develop and travel significant distances over the central Plains. Even farther north, in portions of the northern Plains and the Great Lakes region, fronts associated with reinforcing pushes of cool air from Canada are also likely to set off thunderstorms.
Thunderstorms will erupt and become severe at least at the local level over parts of the northern and central High Plains through Tuesday night and beyond.
Into Monday night, the full spectrum of severe weather ranging from high wind gusts and a few tornadoes to large hail and flash flooding will extend over portions of eastern Wyoming, southeastern Montana and northeastern Colorado to western parts of Kansas, Nebraska and South Dakota.
A separate zone of heavy to locally severe thunderstorms will extend from southern Iowa to northern Louisiana through Monday night. However, the greatest risk of severe thunderstorms and downpours capable of triggering flash flooding will be centered on Missouri.
The risk of severe thunderstorms will stretch from eastern Wyoming to northeastern Colorado, Nebraska, northeastern Kansas, southwestern Iowa and Missouri on Tuesday.
Damaging wind gusts and large hail will be the main threats, but the risk of flash flooding will also exist.
Farther to the north, another zone of severe thunderstorms is likely to erupt from northeastern Montana to southern Manitoba, much of North Dakota, northern South Dakota and central and northern Minnesota from Tuesday to Tuesday night.
The main severe weather threats in this zone will be similar to the area farther to the south over the central Plains.
At midweek, the batch of thunderstorms near the U.S. and Canada border will continue to push southeastward.
It is possible that severe weather, at least at a localized level, will threaten areas from northwestern Ontario to northern Michigan, northern Wisconsin and central Minnesota on Wednesday.
As moisture and thunderstorms over the Southwest extend farther to the north, there will be the potential for drenching thunderstorms and flash flooding centered on portions of the Tetons in western Wyoming that includes Yellowstone National Park.
Storms to offer drought relief, but may lead to flash flooding
As plentiful as rain has been across portions of the central Plains and Midwest, some areas are still in need of precipitation.
Pockets of extreme and exceptional drought continue over portions of Nebraska, Kansas, Missouri and Wisconsin among other states.
Rounds of rain will douse some of the neediest areas of the region. It is possible for the drought to ease at the local level in areas that pick up repeated downpours. The relief will come at a time when corn and other crops are in need of some moisture during the maturation period.
However, as is often the case when complexes of summer downpours and thunderstorms are involved, too much rain may pour down and lead to flash flooding.
"Even in areas where or certain days when severe weather is not expected this week, there will be pockets of downpours that can lead to flash flooding," AccuWeather Meteorologist Joseph Bauer said.
From portions of northeastern Colorado to parts of Nebraska and Missouri and southern Illinois, several inches of rain may pour down this week. Much of that rain may fall during a 24-hour period. It is possible for the downpours to reach parts of the Tennessee Valley.
"By the end of the week, it’s not out of the question that some towns could be hit with drenching thunderstorms and perhaps severe thunderstorms two or three times," Travis said.
When is heat relief in store for Texas?
"From this weekend to early next week, as the dome of high pressure shrinks a bit and reorientates a bit farther to the west, thunderstorms may dip farther south over the Plains and Mississippi Valley," Bauer said.
That could open the door for some drenching and cooling thunderstorms to reach parts of Oklahoma, northeastern Texas and Louisiana.
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