After a brief mid-summer lull in tropical activity, the start of August to could breathe new life into the tropics with more than one new tropical system possible.
Published Jul 30, 2023 11:24 AM EDT | Updated Jul 31, 2023 3:00 PM EDT
AccuWeather meteorologists are monitoring the Atlantic Ocean basin for not one, but two potential areas for tropical development as the calendar turns from July to August.
After a quick and rapid start to the Atlantic Hurricane season, there has been a slight lull in tropical activity in the Atlantic through much of the summer. In under a month's time, the first three tropical storms of the season formed in the Atlantic: Arlene, Bret and Cindy. Cindy dissipated on June 26. Since then, only one tropical system has strengthened and traversed the basin. This storm, Don, not only became the next tropical storm, but also the first hurricane of the season. All of these storms formed ahead of the historical average, according to data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
There are two areas across the Atlantic Basin that could lead tropical development into early August.
The first of these areas is just off the East coast, where a front pushing out into the Atlantic could help to develop a tropical low along the Southeast coast early this week.
"Any strengthening of this storm is expected to be well away from the U.S. coast, so no direct impacts to land are expected at this time," said AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Adam Douty.
If a more organized tropical system were to develop, the most likely impacts would be rough surf and strong rip currents along the East coast beaches from the Outer Banks of North Carolina to the Massachusetts Cape.
The expected northeastward trajectory is likely to keep the tropical system out to sea, with no anticipated impacts to Atlantic Canada aside from rougher seas.
"This is the same disturbance that rolled westward across the Bahamas earlier last week and made landfall along the southern Atlantic coast of the U.S. on Friday," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Alex Sosnowski said. "If the system had an extra day and less land interaction this past weekend, it may have evolved into a tropical depression or storm."
The disturbance triggered locally drenching downpours from Florida to the Carolinas.
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"Additionally, an area in the central Atlantic is being monitored as it moves northwestward in the coming days," Douty explained.
AccuWeather meteorologists are giving this feature a high chance for development into a tropical depression through the middle of the week. Forecasters also noted that it is not out of the question that this tropical low could become a tropical storm, or even the next hurricane of the Atlantic hurricane season.
“As this system turns to the north, wind shear relative to the feature’s movement may ease, and development could take place quickly,” Sosnowski said. In the case through Monday, wind shear was being produced by disruptive stiff breezes that were blowing the upper portion of the disturbance well off to the northeast of where the storm center was in the lower part of the atmosphere.
“In order for development to occur, both parts of the storm will need to line up better, and that could happen as the system turns northward and moves along with the winds rather than against them on Tuesday and Wednesday,” Sosnowski said.
Fortunately, as the week progresses, the storm is expected to be pulled northward, steering it well to the east of Bermuda and North America. Aside from some bigger waves and strong wind impacts to shipping interest across the Atlantic, impacts to land look minimal at this time.
Either of these two tropical systems becoming a named tropical system this week would continue the trend of earlier-than-average development in the basin. The normal date for the fifth named tropical storm of the season is Aug. 22. The next two storm names on the 2023 Atlantic Basin list are Emily and Franklin.
As the days tick by, the calendar continues to approach the historical average peak of the Atlantic Hurricane Season, which is around Sept. 10.
Development chances in the East Pacific remain high
On the other side of North America, AccuWeather meteorologists continue to watch for tropical development.
"A tropical low traversing an area of the East Pacific southwest of Mexico is being monitored for tropical development through Wednesday," said Douty.
If a storm were to organize and strengthen into a tropical storm, it would become the fourth named storm of the season. The next name on the East Pacific list for this year is Dora.
At this time, the expected westward track of this disturbance making any direct impacts to land is unlikely. The southern beaches of Mexico, however, should be on alert for stronger seas through midweek.
Exceptionally warm waters across this zone are expected to make the southern coast of Mexico a prime location for tropical development through mid-August. The farther east that a storm were to develop, the higher the chances for impacts to Mexico to occur.
In addition to the high chance for tropical development early week, forecasters are also monitoring two separate zones in the East Pacific basin. A zone farther to the west currently has been given a low chance of development early this week, while another area off the coast of Mexico has a low risk for tropical development later this week into next weekend.
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