Jonathan Erdman
New York City has yet to see its first measurable snow of 2022-23, a record-long wait for the season's first snowfall in over 150 years.
Only a trace of snow has been recorded in New York City's Central Park since fall. That's over 13 inches below their average season snowfall to date.
Prior to this winter, the city's longest wait to measure the first 0.1 inches of snowfall was Jan. 29, 1973.
That's despite recent storms, named winter storms Iggy, Jimenez and Kassandra by The Weather Channel, which each dumped significant snow in the interior Northeast, but predominantly only rain in New York City.
Instead, the most eye-popping thing in New York City's weather last Wednesday was the sight of flowers blooming in Central Park, as The Weather Channel field producer Mike Bogad and meteorologist Jen Carfagno found.
Usually, the city picks up its first measurable snow by mid-December. Last season, the first measurable dusting arrived on Christmas Eve.
Any Snow On The Horizon?
For the first time in records dating to 1869, Central Park's first-snow drought may extend into February.
Our forecast isn't showing much precipitation over the five boroughs of New York City. There is a small chance of a snow shower Tuesday morning, but more like it will be rain.
There is a quick blast of cold arctic air that will sweep through Friday into Saturday that could bring the tri-state area its coldest weather since the outbreak just before Christmas.
But that cold air will leave by Sunday afternoon, and we aren't expecting much precipitation with this arctic blast.
(MORE: New York City's Detailed Forecast)
That means New York City could threaten another record, this time for the longest stretch of consecutive days without measurable snow, since its last snowfall (0.4 inches) on March 9, 2022.
Snow and Rain OutlookNot Just The Big Apple
The lack of snow isn't confined to New York City.
Philadelphia, Baltimore and Washington, D.C., are also awaiting the first measurable snow of the season. Baltimore and Washington have previously waited as long as Feb. 21 and 23, respectively, also in 1973.
Philadelphia's only season without measurable snowfall was also in 1972-73. And that was New York City's least snowy season, in which only 2.8 inches fell that fall, winter and spring combined.
2022-23 season-to-date snowfall (in inches) from the time of the season's first snow through Jan. 29, 2023.Why The Lack Of Snow?
The weather pattern since fall has been most favorable for snow from the West into the Northern Plains.
More specifically, low-pressure systems have most often plowed into the West Coast, intensified in the High Plains of the Rockies, then tracked into the northern Great Lakes or eastern Canada. That's a pattern typical of late fall or spring, steering winter storms through the Dakotas or areas nearby.
Meanwhile, high pressure has been stubbornly in place over eastern Canada and the Northeast, keeping much of that area warmer than average.
Anomaly in the upper-level weather pattern over the U.S. and Canada from Oct. 1, 2022, through Jan. 20, 2023. Areas of persistent lower pressure are highlighted by the "L" and the blue contours over the West and Plains. Areas of higher pressure are highlighted by the "H" and the green, yellow and orange contours over eastern Canada and the Northeast.According to the Southeast Regional Climate Center, the three-month period ending Jan. 29 was among the warmest such late October through late January periods on record in the Northeast and New England.
January has only accentuated that anomalous warmth. Only 1932 had a warmer first 29 days of January at Central Park than 2023.
Using a "winter misery index" combining both temperatures and snowfall, New York City is off to its mildest start to winter since 1950.
When cold air has swept into the Northeast, it whipped across the Great Lakes and manufactured two rounds of prolific lake-effect snow in Buffalo and Watertown, New York, in late November and December.
And as we alluded to earlier, recent storm tracks have brought snow to the interior Northeast, but have pulled warm air into the Interstate 95 Northeast Urban Corridor, with rain the result.
The skyline of lower Manhattan and One World Trade Center is reflected in the top of a granite monument as the sun rises in New York City on January 26 as seen from Jersey City, New Jersey.Snowiest Month Is Still Ahead
Despite this snowless scenario, it's far too soon to proclaim the rest of the snow season in New York City a dud.
New York City's average snowiest month is February (10.1 inches). This typically coincides with the historical peak in major Northeast snowstorms from late January through February.
Typically, Central Park picks up just over half its snowfall after Jan. 29. That amounts to just over 16 inches if the rest of the season was average.
So if you dread shoveling or driving in snow, enjoy this extended break from it while you can.
The Weather Company’s primary journalistic mission is to report on breaking weather news, the environment and the importance of science to our lives. This story does not necessarily represent the position of our parent company, IBM.
The Weather Company’s primary journalistic mission is to report on breaking weather news, the environment and the importance of science to our lives. This story does not necessarily represent the position of our parent company, IBM.
No comments:
Post a Comment