Chris Dolce
Groundhog Day is Thursday, and Punxsutawney Phil will reveal whether he thinks there will be an early spring or six more weeks of winter.
Phil Will Make His Call Near Sunrise
Punxsutawney Phil will emerge during what is roughly the midway point of astronomical winter at 7:20 a.m. ET to see what he can see, or not see. Weather conditions can play a role in his verdict.
What The Forecast Favors This Year
According to the legend, if the groundhog sees his shadow, there will be six more weeks of winter. But if he doesn't, an early spring and above-average temperatures are on the way.
Thursday morning is predicted to be cold and mostly cloudy in Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania, with no snow concerns expected from a weather system passing well to the south. That would imply Phil is unlikely to see his shadow, and we are headed for an early start to spring.
History Suggests A Shadow Sighting Is More Likely
Punxsutawney Phil is historically more likely to see his shadow.
Phil has seen his shadow 106 times, with no shadow 20 times (10 years of data are missing), according to records from 1887 through 2022.
Based only on the mostly cloudy forecast, this year has a chance to join the rarer no-shadow years.
Phil Is Not An Accurate Forecaster
Overall, the groundhog is not very accurate, and NOAA said Punxsutawney Phil has "no predictive skill."
Of course, even the organizers of the annual Groundhog Day event in western Pennsylvania acknowledge that turning to a large rodent for weather forecasting is mostly a way to break up winter monotony.
Phil's accuracy was just 40% from 2012 to 2021, according to data compiled by NOAA.
Last year, he saw his shadow and declared six more weeks of winter. Phil missed the mark a bit since the continental U.S. saw temperatures near average in February and above average in March.
When Did Groundhog Day Begin?
The first mention of Groundhog Day came in 1886 in Punxsutawney.
Over the years, several other locations have begun using their own groundhog, including General Beauregard Lee of Atlanta, Dunkirk Dave of Dunkirk, New York, and Jimmy of Sun Prairie, Wisconsin.
Groundhog Club co-handlers John Griffiths and Al Dereume hold Punxsutawney Phil, the weather prognosticating groundhog, during the 134th celebration of Groundhog Day on Gobbler's Knob in Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania, on Sunday, Feb. 2, 2020.The Weather Company’s primary journalistic mission is to report on breaking weather news, the environment and the importance of science to our lives. This story does not necessarily represent the position of our parent company, IBM.
The Weather Company’s primary journalistic mission is to report on breaking weather news, the environment and the importance of science to our lives. This story does not necessarily represent the position of our parent company, IBM.
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