Weather Outside Your Window: Long-duration storm to threaten wintry mayhem in Northeast

By Alex Sosnowski, AccuWeather senior meteorologist

Published Jan. 31, 2022 1:01 PM EST | Updated Jan. 31, 2022 9:06 PM EST

Just days after a fast-moving blizzard buried the coastal Northeast with feet of snow and hurricane-force winds, a new and slower-moving storm expected to unleash significant snow, ice and rain over the central United States will spread over the region, including inland areas that were missed by the weekend storm, AccuWeather meteorologist warn.

But, first, the Arctic air will be retreating during the first part of this week in the northeastern United States, and that will allow temperatures to moderate. High temperatures in New York City and Boston are forecast to trend upward through the 30s F into Tuesday then the 40s on Wednesday and Thursday. Fifty-degree readings are likely in parts of the mid-Atlantic on Thursday. Normal highs for this time of year range from 45 in Washington, D.C., to 40 in New York City and 37 in Boston.

By midweek, a fresh surge of Arctic air will set up a major weather battle zone that will threaten a dangerous, but a narrow band of snow and ice and rain for some areas along a 2,200-mile-long swath from the southern Plains to the Midwest and Atlantic Canada. Wintry weather will occur in the Central states spanning Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday, while areas in the Northeast will be affected by the storm with snow, ice and rain beginning on Wednesday and lasting into Friday.

"The press of the Arctic air is going to slow and stall, while at the same time a pair of storms will move northeastward along that temperature boundary," AccuWeather Chief On-Air Meteorologist Bernie Rayno said, adding that instead of wintry precipitation lasting 12 or 24 hours like with the recent storm in the East, snow and/or ice could continue for two days. The lengthy duration of the storm will add to its dangers.

The precipitation type for each location will depend not only on surface temperatures but also on how deep or shallow a layer of cold air becomes in the atmosphere. A very shallow layer of cold air at the surface or just above the ground will result in freezing rain and/or sleet, but a deeper layer of cold air will allow all or mostly snow to fall. Where the air is above freezing at the surface and through most layers of the atmosphere, rain will prevail.

With the expected stagnant setup, the form of precipitation may not change much in a given location, AccuWeather Meteorologist La Troy Thornton said.

"The extended period of wintry precipitation would lead to a heavy snowfall accumulation and a potentially damaging ice accretion across a relatively narrow, but long swath of the nation," Thornton explained.

Should the zone of snow hold its ground, there is the potential for 6-12 inches of snow to fall along the shores of lakes Erie and Ontario, as well as across much of the St. Lawrence Valley that borders the northeastern U.S. and southeastern Canada. Within this zone, there will be a band of 12-18 inches of snow accumulation with an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 30 inches. Parts of northern and western New York state are predicted to lie within that snow bull's-eye, forecasters say.

Overlapping and perhaps 100 miles or so to the south and east of the snow band will be a zone of ice. In the Northeast, this icy zone is projected to extend from part of eastern Ohio through northern and western Pennsylvania, the southern tier of New York state and part of the Hudson Valley through central New England and coastal Maine.

Where mostly sleet falls instead of freezing rain, problems may be limited to icy roads. However, where mostly freezing rain occurs, there is the risk of 0.25 to 0.50 of an inch of ice or more to adhere to trees and power lines, which can lead to major power outages in addition to dangerous travel.

Farther to the south and east, mild air is projected to move in and hold on, resulting in all or mostly rain falling from the mid-Atlantic to southeastern New England.

Normally, the expected 0.75 of an inch to 1.50 inches of rain would not cause significant problems in the region. However, the combination of above-freezing temperatures during both day and night, as well as the rain and melting snow will lead to flooding problems. Most of these problems are likely to be limited to urban areas where large piles of snow are clogging storm drains. AccuWeather meteorologists urge road crews and property owners to free up these areas to avoid street flooding.

Another potential flooding problem has to do with the long-lasting cold of late that has caused streams and rivers to freeze over or become clogged with ice. The duration of the thaw combined with rain can be enough to lead to ice-jam flooding in portions of the central Appalachians, mid-Atlantic and southeastern New England, AccuWeather Meteorologist Brandon Buckingham stated.

In areas near the Great Lakes, the northern tier of New York state and northern New England, few, if any, problems due to ice jam flooding are likely, as the air is likely to remain below freezing or only spend a brief amount of time above freezing this week.

Along with the risk of minor flooding will be another potential travel problem for areas where temperatures climb above or approach the freezing mark. Airline passengers should anticipate flight delays and cancellations due to the extent of snow and ice around major central U.S. hubs of Dallas, Chicago, St. Louis and Detroit. This alone will displace crews and aircraft, and another threat--fog--could become an issue that results in flight delays at some of the major and secondary airports in the Northeast, as well as creating tricky travel on roads.

A potential wildcard in the wintry setup

Current forecasts reflect the most likely outcome of the storm and the primary form of precipitation for the Northeast. However, there is a chance that the latter part of the storm may yet bring significant ice and snow to the mid-Atlantic and southern New England, should cold air manage to advance sooner rather than later.

CLICK HERE FOR THE FREE ACCUWEATHER APP

Historically speaking, it is very rare for rain to change to ice east of the Appalachians in the mid-Atlantic and southern New England.

"The vast majority of the time, the rain ends as dry and cold air sweeps in, or once in a while rain can end as a brief period of snow if moisture lingers for a few hours," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Joe Lundberg said.

In this case, meteorologists will have to watch the behavior of the double-barreled storm closely. If the first storm becomes a bit stronger than anticipated at this time, it could pull colder air farther to the south and east in the region just past midweek.

Such a southeastward shift in the storm's track could deposit more cold air in its wake, and the second storm currently projected to extend rainfall for another 24 hours could instead trigger accumulating snow from Thursday to Thursday night and early Friday in part of the zone from Harrisburg, Pennsylvania, to New York City and Boston.

Just south of this zone, at roughly the same time, such a scenario could lead to ice in northern Virginia, and Maryland to New Jersey, Long Island, New York, and southern New England.

This same, more forceful cold press could then force the zone of heaviest snow farther to the southeast across the central Appalachians to central and northern New England, instead of across the eastern Great Lakes and St. Lawrence River Valley.

Regardless of how the storm unfolds across the mid-Atlantic and southern New England, portions of the central Appalachians, eastern Great Lakes and northern New England will be a wintry mess with major travel disruptions from Wednesday to Friday. AccuWeather forecasters say travelers along highways such as Interstates 20, 40, 70, 80 and 90 should expect major weather-related problems.