By AccuWeather Meteorologist
Published Jan. 31, 2022 9:40 AM EST | Updated Jan. 31, 2022 9:08 PM EST
Residents across the south-central United States are bracing for rounds of heavy rain that could produce significant flash flooding this week as a multifaceted and robust storm system takes aim at a huge swath of the country.
Not only will Southern states be facing a flood risk this Groundhog Day, but some will also encounter a mixed bag of wintry precipitation in the form of snow or ice.
AccuWeather forecasters say that a strong arctic front will dive southward into Texas around midweek. By Wednesday, this energy will combine with a surge of Gulf moisture and bring drenching rainfall to the Mississippi Valley.
While regions north of the front will be in a zone of cooler air, locations along the Gulf Coast are expected to have generally mild air in the 50s and 60s degrees Fahrenheit on Wednesday. Some cities near the coast may even climb a few degrees above 70 F on Wednesday.
Warm and humid air surging northward from the Gulf of Mexico will clash with cooler air departing from the Rocky Mountains along the cold front, setting the stage for thunderstorm activity and downpours. AccuWeather meteorologists caution that although widespread severe thunderstorms are not a major concern at the moment, localized severe weather cannot be ruled out.
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Over the course of two days, steady rainfall is expected to spread eastward from eastern Texas to southern West Virginia. Cities like Dallas; Shreveport and New Orleans, Louisiana; Little Rock, Arkansas; and Nashville, Tennessee; will be within the flood risk zone. The heaviest rainfall will likely stretch from the Louisiana coastline to western Tennessee, where torrential downpours can occur and flood drainage ditches and roadways.
In cities such as Houston, Nashville and Jackson, Mississippi, the main threat will be flooding rain. However, forecasters say that a corridor of freezing rain and ice will unfold overnight from the Mississippi Valley to the Ohio Valley.
"Areas from Dallas to Cleveland will likely start the day with a period of plain rain before a switch over to freezing rain occurs overnight Wednesday," AccuWeather Meteorologist Alex DaSilva said.
This switch over to freezing rain later Wednesday will occur when temperatures drop to below freezing in locations such as Tyler, Texas; Little Rock, Arkansas; Cape Girardeau, Missouri; and Columbus, Ohio.
"There will be plenty of cold air to work with overnight as strong high pressure over the northern Plains funnels cold air down across the center of the country," stated DaSilva.
From Wednesday to Thursday, ice accumulations ranging from 0.10-0.25 of an inch from freezing rain will be likely from northeastern Texas up through central New York. Higher amounts ranging greater than 0.50 of an inch can occur from southeastern Oklahoma to northwestern Pennsylvania, while even higher amounts of icing will be possible in a narrow band across the Ohio Valley.
Farther north, the storm will drop rounds of snow from the Colorado Rockies and the Plains and into the Northeast.
DaSilva explained that areas north and west of Oklahoma City, St. Louis and Detroit should remain all snow as the storm transitions northeastward from Wednesday night through Thursday night.
The risk for widespread power outages, tree damage and dangerous travel conditions will remain as the flooding and ice threat looms across the South. Impacts to airline travel can occur as well along the corridor expected to see wintry hazards, forecasters say.
Following the brunt of the storm on Friday, residents across the South will notice daytime temperatures dropping lower. As far south as the Gulf Coast, where temperatures will range in the 60s and 70s F on Wednesday, daytime highs will reach up to only the middle 40s F for most.
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