A storm bursting into the Plains by midweek will bring the threat of severe weather across south-central states.
Published Nov. 7, 2021 5:56 AM EST | Updated Nov. 7, 2021 8:15 AM EST
After a pattern of mild and settled weather across the central United States to start the week, portions of the Midwest and Plains will become the breeding ground for the development of a potent storm.
This storm will begin its lifespan in the Pacific, reaching the West Coast of the U.S. by late Monday. It is expected to bring rounds of rainfall to California, Oregon, Washington, and southwestern Canada by Monday night, along with periods of high-elevation snowfall to the Cascades and northern Rockies.
After this feature materializes once again east out of the Rocky Mountains, a swath of rainfall will begin spreading into the Plains before encountering cold northern air. This winterlike chill will allow for a transition from rain to snow on the northern rear edge of the storm as it nears the Great Lakes region.
AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Paul Pastelok added, "The weather associated with this storm will explode over the eastern Plains and Mississippi Valley around mid- to late week.
Along the southern and leading edge of this potent storm, rain and thunderstorms will likely expand farther into the Plains and even the Mississippi Valley. Some thunderstorms associated with the storm may even turn severe.
AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Matthew Rinde explained, “The severe weather risk on the southern side of the storm will run from portions of the Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley.”
The energy from this storm combined with the warm southern air will spark instability along the southern leading edge of the rain and showers. Rumbles of thunder may be felt as early as Wednesday from Texas to Iowa before shifting eastward.
Many residents consider severe weather season to be nearly over by November, with the traditional peak in activity falling during the springtime. However, a secondary peak in the severe weather season often occurs during the fall months. This is often a result of cold fronts diving southward into warm and humid air masses originating from the Gulf of Mexico, which is a common occurrence with early season snowstorms.
In addition to the storminess, an uptick in gusty winds will accompany this feature as it takes its path into the Plains. Damaging winds reaching up to 65 mph may be possible in locations east of the northern and central Rockies beginning on Wednesday. Areas across the Dakotas, such as Rapid City, South Dakota, can anticipate windy conditions by Wednesday. Farther south, locations near North Platte, Nebraska, can prepare for windy conditions by Thursday.
Downpours, gusty winds and snowfall may not be the only threats looming across the central United States mid- to late week.
“While the biggest threat from these southern storms will be gusty winds, we still cannot rule out the risk for hail and tornadoes in addition to the heavy rainfall,” warned Rinde.
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As the storm slowly transitions across the Midwest on Wednesday evening, the threat of stronger storms will be enhanced along the cold front. Thunderstorms are likely to begin shifting into the Mississippi Valley into the overnight hours on Wednesday.
By Thursday, Veteran’s Day, rain and thunderstorms are expected to migrate farther into the Mississippi Valley and showers are likely to swing northward into the Ohio Valley. The core of the storm will likely be centered over the Midwest heading into late week, accompanied by gusty winds.
Some variability in the thunderstorm's strength may come into play as the week progresses. Factors such as how far south the storm digs and the amount of instability available can decide whether the severe threat is isolated or more widespread.
By Friday, the cold front associated with this storm is expected to push into the Northeast and bring rounds of rainfall and cooler air with it.
"Sharply colder air, though brief, will flow in behind the storm on the East Coast with a possible change from rain to snow interior sections of the Northeast, Great Lakes, Ohio Valley and the Appalachians by Saturday," stated Pastelok.
As the exact track of the storm is ironed out more in the coming days, forecasters urge residents across the Midwest, Great Lakes and Plains to closely monitor weather updates.
By next weekend, some lingering moisture will be across the Great Lakes and Northeast. Forecasters are currently monitoring the potential for another shot of unsettled weather to impact the Midwest by the end of next weekend.
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