Sunday, November 7, 2021

1st major winter storm to eye central US next week

 By Jake Sojda, AccuWeather meteorologist

On the anniversary of the infamous wreck of the Edmund Fitzgerald, notorious November gales may howl once again across portions of the nation's midsection. A powerful storm will wallop portions of the Plains, Midwest and western Great Lakes with strong winds, heavy snow and severe thunderstorms next week.

"In an eerily similar fashion to that famous storm in 1975, low pressure is expected to develop over the central Plains during the middle of next week, before quickly strengthening and cutting northeastward toward the northern Great Lakes and Upper Midwest," said AccuWeather Meteorologist Alyson Hoegg.

The term "November gales" exists for a reason in the Upper Midwest. As colder air plunges south into the United States more frequently during the autumn month, it often collides with lingering warmth to the south. The clash often triggers some of the first big wintry storms of the season, which are capable of producing fierce winds. That is exactly the scenario that will unfold next week, according to AccuWeather forecasters.

The greatest impacts from the storm are expected to get underway Wednesday, as strong winds develop around the storm. At the same time, heavy rain will break out on the northern side of the storm. Severe thunderstorms could ignite farther south on the warmer side of the storm. As the week progresses, the storm will tap into cold air across Canada, dragging it southward and causing precipitation to change over to heavy snow for some from Wednesday night into Friday.

East of the storm track, winds will be out of the south, at least initially, drawing warm air northward into parts of Missouri and Iowa eastward into the Ohio Valley and western Great Lakes. Temperatures in parts of the area can surge into the upper 60s and lower to middle 70s, including places like St. Louis. The normal high temperature in St. Louis on Nov. 11 is 57 F. While the warmth may be inviting to get outside, the gusty winds could throw a bit of a wrench in outdoor plans, threatening to toss unsecured objects and create dangerous crosswinds for high-profile vehicles.

"Very strong winds will also develop over the western Great Lakes," Hoegg explained, adding the duration and extent of the warmup is likely to be limited in that region. Regardless of the temperature, Hoegg warned that winds will be especially strong along the south- and- east-facing shores of the western Great Lakes, which could also lead to rough surf and coastal flooding.

On the western side of the storm, gusty north to northwesterly winds will pick up, pulling colder air southward through the Plains. While portions of the mid-Mississippi and Ohio Valley bask in well-above-average warmth for mid-November, portions of the northern and central Plains will see temperatures drop through the 50s and 40s F and even into the 30s by evening. When combined with the gusty winds, AccuWeather RealFeel® temperatures will plummet even lower, adding an extra bite to the air. The crashing temperatures on the western side of the storm will eventually lead to a change to snow, with some significant accumulation possible for some communities.

As the storm strengthens Wednesday night into Thursday, rain will change to snow across the northern Plains and Upper Midwest. Many areas from the Dakotas and Nebraska through Minnesota and Wisconsin into western Ontario will have a chance at accumulating snow from Wednesday night into Friday. The storm's track will determine exactly where the heaviest snow totals will occur.

"By the end of the week, the storm will slow down and may even stall over the northern Great Lakes," Hoegg said. "Due to the slow-moving nature of the storm, snow could linger across parts of the region through Friday."

Where snow falls heavily, when combined with the strong winds, near-blizzard conditions could develop for a time in parts of the region. Those with travel plans during this time that include major routes such as I-90, I-94, I-29 or I-35 to name a few will want to keep a close eye on the forecast and be prepared for treacherous travel conditions and significant disruptions. Heavy snow could fall as far east as Minneapolis, creating ripple-effect airline delays and disruptions at other major travel hubs as well.

If snow manages to accumulate 0.1 of an inch or greater in Minneapolis, it will be considered the first measurable snowfall of the season for the city. That would be the latest date for the first measurable snow since 2016, when it took until Nov. 18 for the first accumulating snowfall to arrive. The average date of the first measurable snow in Minneapolis is Nov. 4.

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This comes after a warm October for the city, in which the average temperature was 6 degrees Fahrenheit above normal, and the mercury dropped below freezing only once, on Oct. 23, when the low temperature reached 31 F.

While a snowstorm may rage in parts of the Upper Midwest and northern Plains, farther to the south, the strengthening storm and advancing cold air will bring yet another hazard.

Severe thunderstorms can break out Wednesday across parts of the middle and lower Mississippi Valley. Depending on the evolution of the storm, the threat of severe thunderstorms could even continue eastward into the Ohio Valley and Southeast on Thursday and Friday.

While spring is traditionally thought of as severe weather season, the frequent clashes of warm and cold air in the fall cause a second peak in the occurrence of severe weather.

"With such a large and potent storm system, all severe hazards would likely be on the table should severe thunderstorms break out," Hoegg said. Flash flooding, damaging wind gusts, large hail and even tornadoes may all be risks next week.

AccuWeather forecasters urge people to stay aware and check back with AccuWeather.com or download the AccuWeather app to keep up with forecast updates as the details on this potential blockbuster storm become clearer in the coming days.

See Also:

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