Tropical Depression Grace a Heavy Rain Threat as it Tracks Through the Caribbean, Including Haiti

 weather.com meteorologists

Published: August 16, 2021

Tropical Depression Grace is tracking through the central Caribbean, where it will bring heavy rainfall and gusty winds early this week, including to earthquake-ravaged Haiti. The long-term forecast for Grace later this week is still uncertain, but the system could track into Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula and eventually the southwest Gulf of Mexico.

A tropical storm watch is in effect for Hispaniola, including Haiti, which is in the midst of a recovery effort from Saturday's major earthquake. Tropical storm conditions are possible there Monday into Monday night.

Jamaica is also now under a tropical storm watch for the possibility of tropical storm conditions there on Tuesday.

Haiti and the Dominican Republic could pick up 4 to 8 inches of rain (locally up 15 inches).

This rainfall could trigger flash flooding and mudslides, especially in the mountainous terrain of those countries.

Parts of Jamaica, Cuba and the Cayman Islands might see 2 to 4 inches of rainfall (locally up to 6 inches) through midweek.

The long-term forecast path for Grace has steadily shifted southward over the past couple of days. Upper-level high pressure to its north is now expected to be strong enough to not allow Grace to move as far north as previously expected.

Grace is forecast to regain tropical storm intensity as it moves through the northwest Caribbean into midweek. The storm could then impact Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula with heavy rain and gusty winds by Thursday.

It's possible that Grace then remerges over the southwest Gulf of Mexico (Bay of Campeche) and approaches northeast Mexico or far southern Texas late week, but details are still uncertain.

Residents of the western U.S. Gulf Coast and Mexico should continue to monitor Grace's forecast for possible changes over the next few days.

Current Status, Forecast Path

The Weather Company’s primary journalistic mission is to report on breaking weather news, the environment and the importance of science to our lives. This story does not necessarily represent the position of our parent company, IBM.

The Weather Company’s primary journalistic mission is to report on breaking weather news, the environment and the importance of science to our lives. This story does not necessarily represent the position of our parent company, IBM.