Jonathan Belles
Another developing area of low pressure in the southern Atlantic has a high chance of becoming the next tropical depression or Tropical Storm Grace over the weekend.
The system, tagged Invest 95L by the National Hurricane Center, could follow Fred's path near the Caribbean.
(MORE: What is an Invest?)
Satellites detected an increasingly well-developed area of circulation over 1,000 miles east of the Lesser Antilles on Thursday. Showers and thunderstorms around it have become a little better organized since then.
Invest 95L will quickly move westward or west-northwestward at 15-25 mph through the weekend.
It's expected to near the Leeward Islands by late Saturday or early Sunday and approach the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on by Sunday night.
Regardless of development, it will likely bring gusty winds, rounds of rain and choppy seas as it either passes through the islands into the Caribbean or parallels the northernmost islands of the Lesser Antilles in the Atlantic.
There is some uncertainty on how strong this system could get over the next week and its path.
The "G" tropical storm has formed on average (1966-2009) around Sept. 16, but has formed significantly earlier than that in the last decade.
The peak of hurricane season is in the second week of September.
Will This System Follow Fred and Elsa?
If this track sounds familiar, it's because the last two storms have taken similar tracks.
Hurricane Elsa in July and Fred, which is currently nearing Florida, have tracked through the northern Caribbean.
This track is a common one. Tropical waves frequently track westward through the "Main Development Region," a stretch of the southern Atlantic between Africa and the Caribbean.
Both Elsa and Fred formed from tropical waves and made the voyage across the Atlantic as tropical waves.
Invest 95L is forming the same way but may push westward on a slightly more northern track toward the Caribbean.
Tracks for Elsa and Fred (colored by category) and Ensemble Model Tracks for Invest 95L (in yellow and white)The Weather Company’s primary journalistic mission is to report on breaking weather news, the environment and the importance of science to our lives. This story does not necessarily represent the position of our parent company, IBM.
The Weather Company’s primary journalistic mission is to report on breaking weather news, the environment and the importance of science to our lives. This story does not necessarily represent the position of our parent company, IBM.
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