Tropical Cyclone Tauktae Lashing India With Heavy Rain Ahead of Landfall Early Week

 weather.com meteorologists

Published: May 16, 2021

Tropical Cyclone Tauktae (pronounced TAU-te) is battering the western coast of India with heavy rain, gusty winds and coastal flooding as it heads for landfall early this week in Gujarat state.

Tauktae had maximum sustained winds that were equivalent to the strength of a Category 3 hurricane as of late Sunday, local time.

The tropical cyclone is tracking northward parallel to the coast of western India right now. That is allowing heavy rain, gusty winds and coastal flooding to affect this region.

Potential Path, Timing

Rainfall totals of 8 to 12 inches have soaked parts of the southwest India coast in the 24 hours ending late Sunday, local time.

Four people have been killed and 73 villages damaged in southwest Karnataka state, the Associated Press reported.

Mumbai – home to 20 million in its metro area – will have a close brush with Tauktae on Monday. Flooding rain, tropical storm-force winds and some storm surge are all potential threats.

After that, Tauktae will likely make landfall in India's Gujarat state before turning right over western India toward northern India, including New Delhi.

Bands of heavy rain will continue to soak west and northwest India, leading to a threat of rainfall flooding through early this week. Some areas could pick up 6 or more inches of rainfall.

Rainfall Forecast Through Thursday

Tauktae has already generated swells that are riding up the coast of western India. This has led to some beach erosion across southern portions of India's west coast and will likely lead to erosion at beaches further north and cause at least some coastal flooding, particularly at high tide.

A dangerous, life-threatening storm surge will occur near and east of where Tauktae makes landfall.

Locally higher storm surge is expected in India's gulfs of Khambhat and Kutch to the north of Mumbai where the triangular bay structure and smaller rivers could funnel water northward.

The best chance of hurricane-force damaging winds will be in coastal Gujarat state where Tauktae's core is likely to make landfall.

At least tropical-storm-force winds are possible, however, along the rest of the western India coast even with Tauktae remaining offshore. That could lead to at least some tree damage and power outages.

Arabian Sea Cyclone History and a More Active Future?

Only one or two cyclones form in the Arabian Sea each year, on average, compared to 14 named storms in an average Atlantic Basin hurricane season.

May is one of the two seasonal cyclone peaks in the North Indian Ocean Basin, which includes the Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea. This is because wind shear tends to be low in the basin before the monsoon rains begin, allowing cyclones to form.

Most hurricane-strength Arabian Sea cyclones track either toward India's Gujarat state or migrate westward, sometimes making it to the Arabian Peninsula.

Strikes near Mumbai have been rare. According to NOAA's database, only five hurricane-strength cyclones have tracked within 70 miles of Mumbai in records dating to 1903.

In early June 2020, Cyclone Nisarga reached Category 1 intensity before it made landfall south of Mumbai, largely sparing the city.

Prior to that, 1948 was the last time another hurricane-strength cyclone tracked close to Mumbai.

Tracks of five hurricane-strength tropical cyclones within 70 miles of Mumbai, India, from 1903 to 2020.

That doesn't mean Mumbai won't ever be hit by an intense cyclone.

Computer simulations run by Columbia University suggest it's certainly plausible for the megacity to take a strike from a Category 3 or stronger cyclone. And that study doesn't consider climate change.

The Weather Company’s primary journalistic mission is to report on breaking weather news, the environment and the importance of science to our lives. This story does not necessarily represent the position of our parent company, IBM.

The Weather Company’s primary journalistic mission is to report on breaking weather news, the environment and the importance of science to our lives. This story does not necessarily represent the position of our parent company, IBM.