What Does Snowy December in Northeast Mean for Rest of Winter?

 Linda Lam

Published: January 13, 2021

The Northeast had a particularly snowy December, but does that mean a snowier than average rest of winter is ahead there?

Many Northeast cities ended December with above average monthly snowfall total due to mid-December's Winter Storm Gail.

Gail dumped record snowfall on parts of the Northeast, including Binghamton, New York, and Williamsport, Pennsylvania, which both set all-time snowstorm records from this system.

(MORE: Winter Storm Gail Recap)

More than two dozen locations from northern Pennsylvania into central New York, Vermont and New Hampshire measured at least 40 inches of snow from Winter Storm Gail. It was also the first storm to receive a ranking on the Northeast Snowfall Impact Scale (NESIS) since March 2018.

Fresh off of that December, many snow lovers might be hoping that this snowy trend will persist through the rest of the winter.

There are indications in the historical data for a few snowy December Northeast cities that seasonal snowfall might follow suit, but that's obviously no guarantee.

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Take Boston for instance. Sixty-four percent of snowier than average Decembers there ended with a snowier winter altogether. On the flip side, the 2019 season ended with only about a third of the snow of a typical season after an above average December.

More than three-quarters of seasons with above average snowfall in December in New York City end with more snow than average. In December 2017, snowfall was slightly above average in New York City and the seasonal snowfall was just over 40 inches, well above the average of 25.3 inches.

The percentage for above average seasonal snowfalls for seasons with snowier than average Decembers is shown. The last column shows the most recent year with more snow than average in December.

Both Binghamton and Williamsport measured more than half of their seasonal average with Winter Storm Gail, so the odds of experiencing a snowier than average season are good. Still, the likelihood of an above average snow season after a snowier than average December is just 58% in Binghamton, New York. In Williamsport, Pennsylvania, the percentage of seasons that end with more snow than average after a snowy December is about 70%.

Philadelphia reported 6.6 inches of snow in December, more than double their average. December 2005 had that much snow and some, but a roller coaster rest of the season followed. Less than an inch of snow fell in the following January, but a foot fell in February. In the end, the season total was slightly below average.

December 2020 was the second snowiest on December on record a bit farther west in Pittsburgh. But the city has only measured less than an inch so far in January. About 65% of seasons that saw more snow than typical in December ended with above average seasonal snowfall there.

In Cleveland, the likelihood of seeing more snow than average for the season after a snowy December was much lower, at just over 40%.

Snowfall in the Northeast from July 1, 2020-Jan. 12, 2021.

January has not started off on a snowy note in most of the Northeast, but there is still time for a snowier pattern to return. The end of January and February is a common time of year for snowstorms in the Northeast. Snow there often continues into March.

(MORE: What Is Your Snowiest Month of the Year?)

There are signs of changes in the upper-level weather pattern that could increase the chances for snow in the Northeast during the second half of the winter, but whether heavy snow actually develops in the region remains to be seen.

It is also important to keep in mind that just one or two big snowstorms can result in a snowier than average season.

The mid-December snowstorm was a good sign for those hoping for a snowy winter, and historical odds are decent for a snowy recent winter.\

The Weather Company’s primary journalistic mission is to report on breaking weather news, the environment and the importance of science to our lives. This story does not necessarily represent the position of our parent company, IBM.

The Weather Company’s primary journalistic mission is to report on breaking weather news, the environment and the importance of science to our lives. This story does not necessarily represent the position of our parent company, IBM.