Soaker to end the week in Southeast

 By Jake Sojda, AccuWeather meteorologist

Updated Jan. 17, 2021 3:00 PM EST

Energy from a storm system bringing needed rain to parts of the Southwest early this week will slide eastward late in the week, bringing a wet end to the week in the Southeast.

"A cold front will slowly dip southward into the Southeast during the second half of the week," explained AccuWeather Meteorologist Nicole LoBiondo. "Storm systems like to follow temperature gradients, so this boundary will serve as a path for the energy coming out of the Southwest to move along."

Rain will break out along this front Thursday into Thursday night from eastern Texas to parts of the Carolinas, with many of the same areas then remaining pretty gloomy and damp into the first part of the weekend.

"While the rounds of rain aren't expected to become particularly heavy or lead to much of a flood threat, there can still be some heavier downpours at times that can reduce visibility for travelers and put a damper on those trying to get outdoors," LoBiondo said.

Travelers along major thoroughfares such as interstates 10, 20, 55 and 65 could see some slowdowns at the end of the week.

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Some spots along the northern periphery of the storm system could wind up having some wintry hazards to watch out for as well.

"There could be a narrow zone on the northern edge where just enough cold air makes it far enough south to create an icy mix of snow, sleet and freezing rain," LoBiondo said.

The most likely zone for this would stretch from the Ozarks in Arkansas into Tennessee. If precipitation remains farther south, just plain rain would be expected with this system.

"It will be mild across the region initially with this storm, with temperatures generally 5-10 degrees above average across the Southeast Thursday, and the cold front trying to move in won't be delivering abnormal cold. So it will be difficult to get much, if any frozen precipitation."

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However, that's not the only way that some icy spots could develop. "There's also a chance temperatures across parts of Arkansas, Tennessee and far northern Mississippi, Alabama and Georgia fall below freezing Friday night. If any surfaces are still wet and that happens, there could be some icy spots," LoBiondo said.

For some parts of the Southeast, a good soaking may be welcome. Some pockets of the Southeast are abnormally dry according to the United States Drought Monitor, and much of the region is running below normal so far in January.

Current US Drought Monitor map with some patches of abnormally dry (yellow) conditions across the Southeast. Source: (https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/)

Many of the reporting sites in the region have picked up around just 50 percent of normal rainfall for this point in January. A couple of drier spots include Mobile and Birmingham, Alabama. Mobile has only picked up 25 percent of their normal rainfall through this point in January. Birmingham is at only 40 percent of normal for January thus far.

A southern storm track favoring more rainy weather in the Southeast may continue all the way through the weekend into early next week.

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