By AccuWeather meteorologist
Updated Jan. 17, 2021 3:18 PM EST
As a disturbance slides south along the Pacific Coast this weekend, it will evolve into a potent, but also beneficial, storm system for much of the desert Southwest early this week.
"The same disturbance that will help to drive strong winds across California through the weekend into the early week will turn into a large area of low pressure over Baja California early this week," explained AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Dan Pydynowski.
"This area of low pressure will then slowly spin eastward through the desert Southwest and northern Mexico into the middle of the week."
Areas of snow and gusty winds will spread across the southern Rockies beginning later Monday and Monday night.
"As a blast of cold air advances southward through the Rockies Monday, it will meet the energy situated over the Southwest and snow will break out across parts of central and southern Colorado as well as Utah," Pydynowski said. "Monday night, snow will expand into northern New Mexico and Arizona."
The greatest snow totals will focus on the Rockies from southern Colorado into northern New Mexico, where over a foot of snow can fall through Tuesday. Farther west, some spots across northern Arizona and southern New Mexico could see several inches, including the Grand Canyon and Flagstaff, Arizona. Overall, snow totals will range from an inch to a few inches for most.
Strong winds will also whip along the leading edge of the advancing cold air. Beginning later Monday, gusty winds will expand across the deserts of Southern California and southern Nevada into the interior Southwest. These gusty winds will then persist across most of the region through Tuesday night.
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"Travel along parts of Interstate 40 and other local routes could become tricky early this week, with reduced visibility, blowing snow, blowing dust where there isn't snow, and a risk for blowovers for high-profile vehicles," Pydynowski explained.
While snow falls in the higher ground, lower elevations will receive beneficial rainfall. Much of the interior Southwest remains in extreme or exceptional drought conditions, according to the United States Drought Monitor. From Tuesday through Wednesday night, rounds of rainfall will slowly slide eastward across the region.
Phoenix, Tucson and Yuma, Arizona, have not recorded measurable rainfall since Dec. 10, 2020. Las Vegas last officially recorded measurable rainfall on Dec. 17. Before that date, rain last fell on April 20, 2020. Since then, Las Vegas has only recorded 1% of their normal rainfall.
Even with this storm, it's not a guarantee that Las Vegas will pick up any measurable rainfall.
"The storm may track too far south, leaving Las Vegas just chilly and dry instead. Places like Palm Springs, California, Phoenix, Tucson and Yuma, Arizona, have a much higher chance of seeing appreciable rainfall," Pydynowski said.
Some lucky spots in Southern California, Arizona and New Mexico could receive 0.25 to 0.50 of an inch of rainfall. While it won't be drought-eliminating rainfall, it will certainly help replenish reservoirs in the region. If any downpours become heavy enough, flash flooding could become a greater concern as well.
The heaviest rainfall is expected to remain south of the border, across parts of Baja California and the Sierra Madre Occidental mountains in northwestern Mexico. These areas will bear the brunt of the risk for flash flooding and perhaps mudslides.
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For areas in the Southwest that do end up missing on much beneficial rainfall, there may be more chances just on the horizon.
"The storm in the Southwest early this week looks to open the gates for additional storms across the region over the next couple of weeks," said AccuWeather Lead Long-Range Meteorologist Paul Pastelok. "Another storm looks to arrive later in the week, bringing another chance for rain and snow to this parched region of the country."
Keep checking back on AccuWeather.com and stay tuned to the AccuWeather Network on DirecTV, Frontier and Verizon Fios.
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