By AccuWeather senior meteorologist
Updated Jan. 28, 2021 7:31 PM EST
Winter is wasting no time in playing catch up -- or in some cases playing overachiever -- in parts of the Midwest and Northeast. Less than a week after a historic snowfall in parts of the Midwest, a second winter storm is predicted to take aim at the region.
Unlike the last storm, a secondary storm may form and become an all-out nor'easter early next week. That would bring the potential for heavy snow to parts of the central Appalachians, mid-Atlantic and New England.
As AccuWeather Chief Broadcast Meteorologist Bernie Rayno advised, it’s time for people in cities like Chicago, New York, Philadelphia, Boston, and Washington, D.C., to “buckle up” for some harsh winter weather. AccuWeather meteorologists began warning of the snow potential days ago.
The corridor from Des Moines, Iowa, to Chicago picked up a general 6-12 inches of snow with locally higher amounts from the storm this week. At this early stage, it appears road crews in those areas will likely be kept busy again with a similar snowfall in store from the next storm.
Des Moines is well ahead of average for this point of the winter season. Nearly 20 inches of snow has fallen compared to an average of 7.3 inches as of Jan. 28.
The heaviest snowfall from the last storm, 12-18 inches of snow, walloped eastern Nebraska. The approaching storm has the potential to bring snowfall this time around, but accumulations are likely to be on the lighter end of the spectrum -- perhaps only a few inches or less in those places.
Farther to the east in the Midwest region, little snow, on the order of a coating to an inch or two, fell during the storm early this week from central Illinois to central and northern Indiana and central and northern Ohio.
The storm on deck for this weekend has the potential to bring much heavier snow for not only some of these Ohio Valley states but also many areas farther to the east, including areas from the central Appalachians to the coastal mid-Atlantic and New England.
There is the likelihood for the storm to get a strong "second wind" as it swings through the Northeast with a great potential for heavy snow in when compared to the storm that hit on Tuesday.
AccuWeather’s forecast team warns that storm could evolve into a major, long-lasting nor'easter near the Atlantic coast where some areas may be pounded by accumulating snow and gusty winds that can produce blizzard conditions for multiple hours.
"We are confident that a strong secondary storm will form and affect the Northeast this time around,” Rayno said. “But the exact track and speed of strengthening of that storm will determine where the heaviest swath of snow ends up in relation to the coast and areas well inland.”
Another factor that is likely to contribute to substantial snowfall with this storm will be the duration of the storm. Snow of varying intensity may occur for two to three days in some locations, instead of the more typical eight to 12 hours that occurs with most winter storms.
Some locations in the central Appalachians can expect snow from late Saturday night to Monday night, and a round of lake-effect snow will follow, prolonging the wintry weather into Tuesday. In much of the mid-Atlantic, the storm is forecast to extend from Sunday to Tuesday. Part of New England will face storm impacts from Monday to early Wednesday.
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"At this early stage, it appears that areas along Interstate 95 from Washington, D.C., to Baltimore and Philadelphia will probably pick up at least a few inches of snow," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist John Feerick said. Some milder air higher in the atmosphere could cause precipitation to change to a wintry mix, including sleet, and then perhaps rain in those mid-Atlantic cities. It is possible that a wedge of dry air will sweep up from the south instead and shut off precipitation.
For example, in the lower part of the mid-Atlantic, the storm could begin as snow, transition to a wintry mix for a time then switch back to snow. "However, if this mix does not occur, or dry air fails to move in, snowfall in this zone could be much heavier," Feerick said.
A southward wedge of Arctic air may keep much of Virginia and interior locations of North and South Carolina below freezing for multiple hours during the storm. If this cold wedge develops and lingers, an extended period of wintry mix can occur over this part of the interior South. Heavy snow is forecast to fall on the mountains of North Carolina.
It would take more than 7 inches of snow for Washington, D.C., to get back on average pace for snow this winter. Thus far, only 0.3 of an inch of snow has fallen in the city. By Jan. 28, the normal snowfall is 7.5 inches in the nation's capital. Farther to the north, New York City is close to its seasonal average to date with 10.6 inches. The upcoming storm has the potential to double the Big Apple's total for the winter of 2020-21.
AccuWeather meteorologists expect New York City and Boston to get a major snowfall from the storm, in the range of 6-12 inches, even if there is some mixing for a time. If the mixing does not occur and the storm tracks slightly offshore, even bigger accumulations could pile up.
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"As we see it at this early stage, the heaviest snow ranging from 12-18 inches with the potential for locally double amounts is most likely near parts of the I-81 corridor in Virginia, Maryland and Pennsylvania and the I-84 corridor in New York state," AccuWeather Senior Storm Warning Meteorologist Brian Wimer said.
Snow with this storm pair is likely to be dry and powdery in nature compared to a storm that smacked the East Coast in mid-December. That early winter storm dropped 40 inches of wet snow on the southern tier of New York state. The wet nature of that snow event led to very little blowing and drifting snow.
The approaching storm is predicted to strengthen and pull in more Arctic air, and winds are forecast to kick up and cause extensive blowing and drifting snow, regardless of the amount that accumulates early next week.
Farther south, in the storm's warm sector, areas from the Gulf coast to the lower Mississippi Valley and southern Atlantic coast will get rain. Forecasters say that some thunderstorms could erupt, and it is not out of the question for a small number of them to turn severe. The last winter storm unfolded in a similar manner and spawned a deadly tornado north of Birmingham, Alabama, on Monday night, and a brief tornado touched down and caused damage at Tallahassee Airport, Florida, on Wednesday.
The storm system forecast to hit the Midwest and reorganize along the Atlantic coast already has a punishing reputation. It is the same system that hammered California with torrential rain, flooding, mudslides, powerful winds and feet of mountain snow much of this week and its likely to keep some of its disposition, at least in terms of snowfall and wind as it moves farther to the east this weekend to early next week.
Keep checking back on AccuWeather.com and stay tuned to the AccuWeather Network on DirecTV, Frontier and Verizon Fios.
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