Updated jun.
8, 2020 10:29 AM
Parts of northern India have been under the threat of flash flooding in recent weeks as Cyclone Amphan and Cyclone Nisarga brought flooding rainfall and destructive winds to the region. Now, tropical downpours are forecast to spread across central and southern India.
As northern areas have been on tropical alert, the southwest monsoon arrived across extreme southwest India and southern Sri Lanka. Widespread showers and thunderstorms have been soaking these areas throughout the beginning of June.
The advancement of the monsoon and the development of a monsoon low will help to carry increased tropical moisture into central India in the coming days.
Over the weekend, the leading edge of the monsoon pushed north, spreading more widespread showers and thunderstorms into Tamil Nadu and southern Andhra Pradesh.
As the leading edge of the monsoon sits over the warm waters of the Bay of Bengal early this week, an area of low pressure is expected to gradually develop.
According to Nicholls, there is still potential for some strengthening of this feature and it could reach depression status. However, moderate wind shear, or winds that increase in speed with altitude, over the bay will limit the amount of strengthening.
"We do expect the low to fall short of reaching cyclonic storm intensity," Nicholls added.
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By the middle of the week, the monsoon low is forecast to begin advancing toward India, increasing shower and thunderstorm activity. Wet weather will expand from Karnataka and Tamil Nadu to Madhya Pradesh and Odisha.
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How much the monsoon low strengthens and where it tracks will determine where the heaviest rain will fall.
Regardless, any increase in thunderstorm activity will bring the risk of flooding downpours, mudslides and gusty winds to much of central and southern India this week.
Residents are urged to head indoors at the first sound of thunder as any storms can bring frequent lightning strikes that can be dangerous for anyone caught outside.
The stormy pattern is forecast to continue across the region during the second half of this week, and storms will spread into West Bengal as the low meanders over the area.
People are rescued in a tractor from a flooded area following heavy rainfall in Patna, India, Monday, Sept. 30, 2019. Monsoon rain continues to batter parts of India, with dozens of people dying in the past 24 hours, officials said Sunday. (AP Photo/Aftab Alam Siddiqui)
"As accurately predicted by the AccuWeather southwest monsoon forecast back in April, the onset of the monsoon reached Kerala on 1 June. The monsoon has since slowly advanced into portions of Karnataka and the east-central Bay of Bengal as of 5 June," said Nicholls.
Forecasters expect near-normal advancement of the monsoon with more widespread showers and thunderstorms expanding to the northwest across India and into Pakistan through the beginning of July.
The monsoon season brings beneficial rain to India, but heavy thunderstorms threaten severe flash flooding, mudslides and frequent lightning strikes across the country. Hundreds of people are killed each year amid monsoon downpours.
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