A stagnant weather pattern with rounds of heavy rain-producing thunderstorms will soak parts of the Plains and South well into the week ahead, increasing the threat of flash flooding.
First up, a north-to-south frontal system will park itself over the Plains early this week. Another slow-moving upper low will also set up over the South into late week.
Both of those features will tap into warm and humid air streaming northward from the Gulf of Mexico, triggering the development of widespread showers and storms in the Plains and South the next several days.
(MORE: Notice the Weather Moving Slower? There's a Reason For That)
The overall pattern setting up for the last week of May includes another slow-moving upper-level low-pressure system tapping moisture into the Plains and Mississippi Valley, leading to areas of thunderstorms with locally heavy rain.Flood Threat
This soaking weather pattern has already produced flash flooding over the holiday weekend.
Water rescues were reported late Sunday night because of flash flooding in the San Antonio metro area. Flash flooding in south-central Nebraska prompted a water rescue near the town of Kenesaw early Monday morning.
Current Radar, Watches and WarningsOur latest rainfall forecast through Friday indicates areas from the Central and Southern Plains into parts of the Southeast could see at least an inch of rain. The heaviest totals might affect areas from eastern Oklahoma and parts of Texas into Louisiana and Arkansas.
Locally heavy rain is also possible over the Southeast states as the previously-mentioned upper low helps to lift a disturbance northward over the region from Florida.
Given the slow-moving nature of the overall weather pattern, any clusters of thunderstorms that stall for a period of a few hours are capable of quickly triggering flash flooding in these areas.
Rainfall ForecastThe Ozarks of southwestern Missouri, western Arkansas and eastern Oklahoma is one area where the flash-flood potential is higher. The ground there is soaked enough that soil moisture is in the 99th percentile for this time of year, according to a NOAA analysis, following heavy rain the week after Mother's Day. Any rain that falls in these areas will quickly run off, rather than first soak into the ground.
The National Weather Service has issued flood watches from parts of the Central Plains into the ArkLaTex region.
(MORE: We're Heading Into the Prime Time of Year For Flash Flooding)
Flood AlertsFortunately for the rain-weary Great Lakes, while at least isolated or scattered thunderstorms are in the forecast through most of this week, the threat of heavy rainfall is much lower there.
In a few areas, the rain, assuming it isn't an excessive deluge, is welcome news. Drought continues to plague parts of the Central and Southern Plains, South Texas and the northern Gulf Coast.
The Weather Company’s primary journalistic mission is to report on breaking weather news, the environment and the importance of science to our lives. This story does not necessarily represent the position of our parent company, IBM.
The Weather Company’s primary journalistic mission is to report on breaking weather news, the environment and the importance of science to our lives. This story does not necessarily represent the position of our parent company, IBM.
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