A tropical threat will bring flooding rainfall and gusty winds to northern Australia in the coming days as it gradually strengthens this week.
Meteorologists have been monitoring a broad area of low pressure steadily developing in a swath of tropical moisture. This low has been producing showers and thunderstorms over the northern part of the country.
The area of low pressure is expected to continue to slowly organize as it tracks west toward the Kimberley coast.
Rain and thunderstorms are expected to continue across parts northern Western Australia through Wednesday. Widespread rainfall totals are expected to reach 50-100 mm (2-4 inches) across this area.
An AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 200 mm (8 inches) is possible in areas that receive prolonged periods of tropical rain.
From Monday into Monday night, 162 mm (6.38 inches) of rain fell in Truscott, Western Australia.
The risk for flash flooding will increase across the region as rainfall totals climb through the first half of the week.
Wind gusts will also increase as the tropical low becomes more organized.
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The potential for tropical development will increase through the middle and end of the week as the system moves out over the Timor Sea into an area more conducive for tropical development.
Less interaction with land, warm water and low wind shear will allow the storm to strengthen.
If the storm becomes a Category 1 tropical cyclone on the Australian intensity scale, equivalent to a tropical storm in the Atlantic Ocean, it would be given the name Damien.
Periods of heavy rain will gradually wind down during the second half of the week along the Kimberley coast as the storm progressively moves away from the area.
The storm is expected to track to the southwest through the end of the week, but there are two possible scenarios as to where the storm will track into the weekend.
"The first would take the low west into the open waters of the southeastern Indian Ocean with no threat to land," stated AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Jason Nicholls.
"The second scenario is that the cyclone turns south of west and pushes into the Pilbara coast over the weekend."
In this scenario, the Pilbara coast could receive flooding rainfall and gusty winds this weekend. Depending on the strength of the storm, the strength of the winds would determine if the storm were to make landfall in this area.
Keep checking back on AccuWeather.com for the latest updates on this storm and your forecast.
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