WEATHER NEWS Updated Feb. 3, 2020 3:54 PM
The sun was shining off the golden capital dome of the Des Moines capitol building over the weekend, the snow melting as temperatures rose. Crowds gathered in the pleasant weather with hopeful presidential candidates throwing one last rally before the 2020 Iowa Caucus.
With a cold front moving in through Sunday night and into Monday, the day of the caucus, the same crowds drawn to the rallies may not be as eager to weather the cold to support their candidate.
"In Iowa for the caucuses you have to show up at 7 o’clock on a Monday night in the middle of winter," Drake University political science professor and longtime political analyst Dennis Goldford told AccuWeather. "You gotta hope that the baby’s not sick, you’re not sick, the babysitter shows up, the car starts, you don’t have a flat tire and you have to hope there’s not a blizzard or freezing rain or something like that because weather events like that can have an impact on caucus turnout."
The month of February has started off with springlike conditions across Iowa, with temperatures surging well above normal. Temperatures have lingered in the 40s on Saturday and Sunday while a change in the weather pattern will come just in time for the Iowa Caucus on Monday.
Forecast temperatures across Iowa are expected to start off in the 20s across the state in the morning, rising only into the 30s for most by the afternoon. In addition to the chilly conditions, gusty winds of 15-25 mph are expected across the region Monday.
AccuWeather RealFeel® Temperatures will start off in the teens on Monday morning, only to peak in the middle 20s in the afternoon.
Here's what that could mean for the candidates.
Iowa by no means has the most electoral votes, coming in at only six compared to Illinois's 20 or California's 55, yet the Iowa Caucus has always been an important launch site for the presidential primary season.
"They won't tell you to a great extent who will win the nomination, let alone the presidency," Goldford said. "They have a better chance to tell you who will not win the nomination. In other words, if you don’t do well in Iowa in the past at least, your money dries up, it’s hard to continue."
The caucus is different from a primary, as not necessarily declaring a winner but "reports results," as Democratic National Committee David Bergstein told the New York Times.
FILE - In this Jan. 26, 2020 file photo, people cheer as democratic presidential candidate Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., speaks at a campaign rally in Sioux City, Iowa. (AP Photo/John Locher)
"The only way to become the Democratic Party's presidential nominee is by winning a majority of national convention delegates," Bergstein said, emphasizing for any viewers looking for some semblance of a "winner" to pay attention to those results.
In the past, weather played a role in shaking up voter turnout in the 2016 Iowa Caucus when a major snowstorm swept across the region, complicating travel conditions. At this caucus, Ted Cruz took the win over Donald Trump by three percentage points , and former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton took the win over Bernie Sanders, also by three percentage points.
Goldford told AccuWeather based off of 2016 stats, weather may factor into the age groups of voter turnout.
Joe Walsh told AccuWeather he is worried about the overall republican turnout for the Iowa Caucuses. He met with supporters and undecided voters in a Des Moines coffee shop this morning. #IACaucus
The line is out the door at Simpson College as people wait to get inside an Elizabeth Warren rally in Indianola. Sunshine and mild temps are helping to melt some of the snow on campus.
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"Older folks might be a little more respectful of weather and especially bad weather conditions," Goldford said. "Kids think they're invulnerable. They'll go out at any time for any reason to any destination."
Goldford theorizes that since Biden's supporters skew older with little support from younger voters, bad or even dangerous weather conditions could have an impact on people who would otherwise turn out for him.
Biden, acknowledging the "neck-and-neck" race between himself and Sanders in an interview with George Stephanopolous during a Friday appearance on Good Morning America.
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Responding to a question about whether he thinks he'll win the Iowa Caucuses on Monday, Biden said, "I think it's going to be really close, George," before adding, "If there's a big snowstorm in ... certain parts of the state, it could have an effect."
On the other hand, Warren, Sanders and even Pete Buttigieg have attracted younger voters, who Goldford theorizes would be more likely to show up regardless of the weather conditions.
Voter turnout and election results have been linked to weather conditions in past research conducted by AccuWeather. In a 2016 analysis of overall weather trends and voting data, utilizing L2 as a resource, AccuWeather found that uncomfortable conditions, such as frigid or hot and muggy weather can deter swing voters. Additionally, women were found to be more sensitive to cold conditions than men, and younger voters, aged 18 to 24, have higher turnout rates when the weather is sunny and warm.
"Even something like weather, if it's severe or even dangerous weather, that can have an impact on turnout. Just as in real estate where the three most important factors are location, location and location, in electoral politics, the three most important factors turnout, turnout and turnout," Goldford said. "And weather can be a factor in turnout."
Additional reporting by Bill Wadell and Courtney Spamer
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