Updated Dec. 5, 2019 12:03 PM
The official start of winter is still about two weeks away, but conditions are coming together in a way that could bring harsh winterlike conditions to a large portion of the middle of the United States next week.
The storm is likely to spread a swath of heavy snow over the Upper Midwest. A cold blast that follows the storm next week, regardless of its intensity, may lead to the most significant outbreak of lake-effect snow of the season so far.
The exact track of the storm will determine where the boundary between rain and snow falls, and the track of the storm will be greatly tied to its intensity.
A weak storm is more likely to take a more easterly track toward the Northeast states. An intense storm is more likely to track well to the west over the Great Lakes.
At this time, a moderate storm is most likely, but substantial snow can fall in a narrow swath.
"Enough snow to shovel and plow are forecast from part of South Dakota to central and southern Minnesota, northern Wisconsin and the Upper Peninsula of Michigan," according to AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Brett Anderson.
The storm will move out of the southern Rockies this weekend then dip over the southern Plains before turning northeastward across the Mississippi Valley and then the eastern Great Lakes region early next week.
While the current projected path of the storm brings heavy snow to Minneapolis, a shift in the track of the storm could spread accumulating snow farther south toward Chicago or Detroit.
Even with heavy snow riding across the northern tier, a period of snow, a wintry mix or a rapid freeze-up can occur in Chicago and Detroit.
Regardless of the storm track and its intensity, multiple days of blustery and much colder conditions will follow during the middle to latter part of next week from the northern and central Plains to the Midwest and Northeast.
As the cold air arrives, temperatures are forecast to plummet by 30 degrees from one day to the next over the Central states from the Great Lakes to the southern Plains.
The Arctic air outbreak is likely to bring AccuWeather RealFeel® Temperatures in the lower teens, single digits and below zero over a broad area of the North Central states during the daylight hours starting on Tuesday.
Nighttime lows well below zero are likely over parts of the northern Plain and the Upper Midwest during Tuesday night and Wednesday night.
At this level, there will be an increased risk of frostbite and hypothermia for those who spend time outdoors and are not properly dressed.
This painfully cold air with gusty winds will then spread into the Northeast during the second half of next week -- and it will be a dramatic change following a mild start to the week.
As the frigid air blasts across the unfrozen and mild waters of the Great Lakes, bands of heavy lake-effect snow and snow squalls are likely to develop.
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In the past, patterns of this nature during December have unleashed feet of snow with whiteout conditions in localized areas downwind of the Great Lakes.
The position of these heavy snow bands will depend on the wind direction. For example, more of a southwesterly wind at the onset of the cold air would bring heavy snow to the Buffalo, New York, area. Conversely, more of a northwesterly wind would bring heavy snow to northwestern Indiana, northeastern Ohio, northwestern Pennsylvania, and the ski resorts in western New York.
Winter is here, but if you’re thinking of packing it together to surprise someone with a snowball, just remember that could be illegal in some cities.
Either way, locally heavy lake-effect snow would hammer much of Michigan and southern Ontario.
Even in a setup where fast shifting bands of lake-effect snow occur, many areas downwind of the Great Lakes by several miles have the potential to receive a foot of snow.
Download the free AccuWeather app to check the forecast in your area. Keep checking back on AccuWeather.com and stay tuned to the AccuWeather Network on DirecTV, Frontier and Verizon Fios.
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