A storm system will bring soaking rain to parts of the South and may also bring some light snow – the first of the season – to parts of the Ohio Valley and Northeast later this week.
The origin of this system is an upper-level low spinning over and just offshore of Southern California. It's not producing much precipitation, with the exception of some weird early morning thunderstorms over the Mojave Desert north of Los Angeles on Sunday.
At any rate, this feature should gradually pivot into the Southwest over the next few days. As that happens, increasing moisture will be drawn northward into an arriving cold front in the Plains. The lift from both the frontal boundary and the upper-level low will wring out rain and some thunderstorms in the Plains beginning Wednesday.
Speaking of that front, a reinforcing blast of cold air will sweep into the Plains, Midwest and Northeast later this week.
Some of that Southern moisture could end up being drawn up and over the front into the colder air, which would generate snow in parts of the Midwest and East. That part of the forecast remains very uncertain at this time.
So, let's lay out what we know and what we're still quite uncertain about.
South Soaking
Rain and thunderstorms should pick up in the Southern Plains and parts of the Desert Southwest by Wednesday.
Wednesday night and Thursday, that rain should become more widespread from Oklahoma and Texas to the lower Mississippi Valley and southern Appalachians.
By Friday, most of the Southern Plains should be dry, with rain and thunderstorms sweeping through the Southeast from the Carolinas to Florida.
The heaviest rain totals are expected from Oklahoma into southern Missouri and Arkansas, where some areas may see up to 2 inches of rain. These modest rain amounts in the South aren't expected to produce much in the way of flash flooding.
The potential for severe thunderstorms also appears quite low, mainly pinned to areas near the Gulf Coast and Florida late this week.
First Flakes?
The ingredients graphic we showed earlier alluded to separate branches of the jet stream.
Those two branches of the jet stream might combine just enough for a weak area of low pressure to form near the Northeast coast. That could allow moisture to be drawn just far enough north to overlap the cold air, leading to at least light snow in spots.
The bottom line is that while there is still uncertainty in this forecast, we don't expect a widespread, major snowstorm out of this pattern.
On Thursday, a thin stripe of light snow, possibly mixed with light freezing drizzle, could stretch from the mid-Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley and interior Northeast.
Thursday night and Friday, that strip of light snow or a rain-and-snow mix could extend as far east the Northeast Interstate 95 corridor.
It's too early to forecast any potential accumulations, but it could be the first measurable snow of the season in parts of the Northeast and Ohio Valley.
We'll update this forecast as the scenario becomes clearer in the days ahead. Check back with us at weather.com for updates.
The Weather Company’s primary journalistic mission is to report on breaking weather news, the environment and the importance of science to our lives. This story does not necessarily represent the position of our parent company, IBM.
The Weather Company’s primary journalistic mission is to report on breaking weather news, the environment and the importance of science to our lives. This story does not necessarily represent the position of our parent company, IBM.
No comments:
Post a Comment