Updated Oct. 21, 2019 10:46 AM
As the northeast monsoon sets in across India, forecasters are warning that a cyclonic storm may form later this week in the Arabian Sea.
After the southwest monsoon made a record late, but rapid retreat from India, the northeast monsoon is underway across central and southern portions of the country.
In northern India, dry and hazy conditions have begun to dominate the weather in much of the region.
Air quality is expected to gradually worsen across northern India as the dry weather persists. The combination of agricultural burning and pollution typically spawns widespread poor air quality each year shortly after the southwest monsoon withdraws.
In central and southern India, where rainfall persists, air quality will be better, though most locations can have daily rounds of showers and thunderstorms.
The exception will be along the west and east coasts where low pressure systems will enhance rainfall.
The area of low pressure in the Arabian Sea is expected to strengthen and may develop into a cyclonic storm by the weekend, according to AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Jason Nicholls.
"Regardless of development there will be heavy rain and the risk of flooding along the southwest coast of India from southwest Maharashtra to coastal Karnataka into Kerala through at least Thursday," Nicholls said.
Communities such as Mangalore, Panaji and Ratnagiri will be at risk for heavy downpours and isolated flooding.
The potential cyclone is not expected to move inland, but will rather track away from land later this week. As a result, widespread flooding is not expected.
In eastern India, low pressure in the Bay of Bengal will move inland and bring heavy rain to eastern India from northern Andhra Pradesh to Jharkhand.
While it won't form into a tropical cyclone, AccuWeather meteorologists say moisture from the Bay of Bengal low will move west-northwest and then northward across eastern India, enhancing the showers and thunderstorms."
The heaviest rain is expected to fall to the north of Chennai, though it could impact Ongole and Visakhapatnam from Tuesday into Wednesday. Travel delays can be expected and isolated flooding is possible in low-lying areas.
These two lows are expected to move away from India this weekend, allowing drier weather to move into the central portion of the country for the start of Diwali celebrations.
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