Swath of Atlantic still at risk for tropical development into next week

By Alex Sosnowski, AccuWeather senior meteorologist

Updated Oct. 11, 2019 10:42 AM

While the window for tropical systems to brew will soon be closing for some zones in the Atlantic, the risk of tropical development is shifting southward into next week.

"Two areas we have been monitoring for tropical or subtropical development just off the East Coast of the United States to east of Bermuda are running out of time," AccuWeather Hurricane Expert Dan Kottlowski explained.

This image, taken on Thursday, Oct. 10, 2019, shows much of the tropical Atlantic Basin. There was a non-tropical swirl of clouds well east of Bermuda and a weak, broad area of showers and thunderstorms over the western Caribbean Sea. (NOAA/GOES-East)

One such area is a storm located southeast of the New England coast, which has strengthened some Thursday night. Should it continue to gather tropical characteristics into Saturday, it could briefly become a subtropical storm.

More long-term, meteorologists are also watching areas in the Caribbean and off the coast of Africa over the next week for possible tropical trouble.

Tropical disturbances, or tropical waves, continue to move westward off the coast of Africa every three days or so.

These waves make up the Cabo Verde season, which is named for the disturbances that originate near the Cabo Verde Islands just off the west coast of Africa.

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Even though we are past the peak of the Cabo Verde season and the hurricane season in general, these disturbances and other areas can still evolve into tropical depressions, storms and hurricanes over time.

"A somewhat stronger tropical wave is forecast to move off the Africa coast this weekend and move westward," Kottlowski said.

"There is a low chance this becomes an organized system next week," he added.

There remains a broad area of weak counterclockwise winds over the western Caribbean and Central America. This feature is called a gyre.

Occasionally, as tropical waves move into this gyre, they have a greater chance at becoming a tropical depression or storm, since there is extra moisture in place and there already is a weak circulation to begin with.

"As a result, the area from the western Caribbean to Central America, including adjacent eastern Pacific waters, could give birth to a tropical system or two through next week," Kottlowski said.

"However, the chance of tropical storm formation is probably significantly higher on the Pacific side as opposed to the Caribbean side," Kottlowski added.

Hurricane season continues until the end of November, and Kottlowski feels there will be another named system or two over the Atlantic Ocean before the season comes to a close.

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