Strengthening coastal storm to soak Northeast, agitate seas

By Kyle Elliott, AccuWeather meteorologist

Updated Oct. 7, 2019 2:34 PM

Weather systems will converge and stall over Atlantic waters near the Northeast this week, which will pave the way for not only rain, but also problems related to rough seas, gusty winds and coastal flooding in some areas.

A cold front moving through the northeastern United States on Monday will stall off the Eastern Seaboard and spawn a strengthening storm system that will force rain and wind back over land.

The entirety of the mid-Atlantic and Northeast will be soaked by rain into Monday night as the front moves through, with a bit of a lull expected on Tuesday before more widespread wet weather returns by midweek.

A high pressure system settling over northern New England and the Canadian Maritimes this week will combine with the flow around the storm system to channel strong, gusty winds and moisture back into the Interstate 95 corridor from Boston to Washington, D.C.

There is some chance that this storm develops tropical or subtropical characteristics, and AccuWeather meteorologists will be monitoring the system to see if it becomes the next named tropical entity later this week.

"There are some similarities to the Halloween Storm, otherwise known as the 'Perfect Storm' from 1991, but on a much smaller and less-intense scale," according to AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Alex Sosnowski.

Tropical and non-tropical systems converged, merged and stalled off the Atlantic coast from late October to early November, 1991. The powerful, slow-moving storm system from 28 years ago produced massive seas and coastal flooding for days.

A weather system over the eastern United States and a feature hovering off of the Atlantic coast are seen on a satellite image Monday morning, Oct. 7, 2019. (NOAA/GOES-EAST)

"We may not even get a tropical system to form out of the set up, but the point is there will be a strengthening, slow-moving storm out there agitating the ocean that will attempt to throw some rain and rough seas back toward the coastal Northeast for a time later this week," Sosnowski said.

"Regardless of whether or not the system is named, it will have the potential to cause rough surf, coastal flooding and rip currents at the mid-Atlantic and New England beaches for several days," he added.

Anybody planning on surfing or swimming in the Atlantic Ocean this week should be aware of these threats and stay out of the water if necessary.

"Operators of small craft and cruise interests should monitor the situation carefully as seas are likely to build substantially as the week progresses," Sosnowski said.

With days of unsettled weather ahead, some places from the Delmarva Peninsula to eastern Pennsylvania, New Jersey and southeastern New York could receive as much as 2 or 3 inches of rain by week's end.

Aside from causing travel delays and slippery roadway conditions, the rain will largely be beneficial since much of the mid-Atlantic and New England is currently experiencing abnormally dry to moderate drought conditions, according to the latest U.S. Drought Monitor.

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Gusty winds and unseasonably cool air will accompany the damp weather. High temperatures will be no better than the low 60s in New York City on Wednesday and Thursday, and the mid- to upper 60s in Baltimore and Washington, D.C.

In comparison to the record-breaking heat these areas expected during the first few days of October, the upcoming chill may come as quite the shock and send residents scurrying for sweatshirts and jackets.

Wind gusts as high as 40 mph are expected along the immediate coastline, and gusts up to 30 mph may reach the major cities of the I-95 corridor.

Not only will the consecutive days of gusty winds make the outdoor air feel even chillier, but they will also enhance the risk of beach erosion and rapidly bring down leaves that have begun to change.

Unfortunately, it is not until the weekend that dry, calmer and milder conditions are forecast to return to the mid-Atlantic. However, the storm may then lift northward and send rain into parts of northern New England this weekend.

"Those along the coast, as well as in Atlantic Canada, should monitor the evolution of this system this week," Sosnowski said.

Download the free AccuWeather app to see when rain could impact your area. Keep checking back for updates on AccuWeather.com and stay tuned to the AccuWeather Network on DirecTV, Frontier and Verizon Fios.