Monday, October 7, 2019

Following explosive intensification, Hagibis becomes 3rd super typhoon of the year

Updated Oct. 7, 2019 12:38 PM




Concern grew on Monday as Hagibis, a tropical depression two days ago, underwent rapid strengthening and developed into a formidable super typhoon, the third of the season in the West Pacific. 
On the heels of Typhoon Tapah and Typhoon Mitag that brought deadly impacts to eastern Asia during the second half of September and into early October, forecasters will closely monitor Super Typhyoon Hagibis for potentially damaging impacts this week.
Hagibis went through an extraordinary period of strengthening as the storm started as a tropical depression with sustained winds of 30 mph on Saturday and only 48 hours later was a super typhoon producing winds of 150 mph.
Hagibis is currently packing winds equal to a powerful Category 4 hurricane in the Atlantic or East Pacific oceans.
Additional strengthening is expected during the next 24-36 hours, as Hagabis tracks through the northern Mariana Islands with destructive winds and torrential rainfall.
During this time Hagibis is forecast to produce winds equal to a Category 5 hurricane.
Hagabis may even briefly flirt with becoming the strongest tropical cyclone on the planet this year. Dorian currently holds that distinction with sustained winds of 213 km/h (185 mph).
The center of the storm will pass roughly 200 miles (320 km) north of Guam, sparing the island the worst impacts from the storm; however, tropical-storm-force winds and heavy rainfall are still expected into Tuesday afternoon.
Rota will also endure a prolonged period of tropical-storm-force winds and downpours. Rainfall across Guam and Rota is expected to average 3-6 inches (75-150 mm) which may result in flooding.
Satellite animation of Supertyphoon Hagibis as it approaches Guam on Monday. (Himawari 8/RAMMB)
Farther to the north, the islands of Tinian and Saipan will endure a period of hurricane-force winds, which may cause widespread power outages and tree damage.
Rainfall amounts of 5-10 inches (125-250 mm) will also bring a high risk for flooding to the islands.
The super typhoon will continue its west-northwest track into midweek, allowing conditions to begin improving across Guam and the Northern Mariana Islands late Tuesday.
Scattered showers and a gusty breeze will persist on Wednesday and Thursday.
After departing the Northern Mariana Islands, Hagibis will begin to turn northward, putting the powerful storm on a possible collision course with Japan.
Some modest weakening is possible from Wednesday into Friday as Hagibis moves over the open waters of the West Pacific to the south of Japan.
Despite some weakening, Hagibis will remain a powerful typhoon as it approaches Japan and will be capable of producing life-threatening impacts.
Current forecasts take Hagibis to the east of the Ryukyu Islands, with just a few gusty rain bands possible over the northern islands late Friday into Saturday.
Mainland Japan is not expected to be as lucky with a direct hit possible this weekend.
All of mainland Japan should prepare now for potential impacts ranging from flash flooding to damaging winds, mudslides and travel disruptions.
Residents should also prepare for possible evacuations and some locations may be without power for an extended period during and following the storm.
At this time, areas from eastern Kyushu through Shikoku and eastern Honshu are at greatest risk; however, any shift in the track in the coming days may cause this area to be adjusted.
Tokyo is once again in the area that may have some of the most significant impacts from the storm with rain possibly beginning on Friday night before the worst of the wind and rain occurs late Saturday into Sunday morning.
Aside from the risks to lives and property, Hagabis may also affect several sporting events across Japan.
The Rugby World Cup has six scheduled matches on Saturday and Sunday when the worst the weather is forecast to affect the country.
Any games cancelled due to weather will be recorded as a scoreless draw, according to BBC News.
Also the Japanese Grand Prix is set to take place on Sunday afternoon, local time at Suzuka International Racing Course.
Hagibis could deliver both damaging winds and flooding rainfall on the region from Saturday into Sunday affecting practice, qualification and racing conditions.
The race was ended prematurely in 2014 amid adverse weather after a tragic crash involving Jules Bianchi who later succumbed to injuries.
Check back with AccuWeather, as meteorologists continue to track tropical systems as they develop across the Western Pacific, as well as the other ocean basins across the world.
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