Updated Oct. 7, 2019 10:43 AM
While the monsoon has yet to officially begin its withdrawal, drier weather is forecast across northwestern India this week.
India's 2019 southwest monsoon season is already the latest to begin its withdrawal, with the previous record start of the withdrawal taking place on Oct. 1, 1961, according to the India Meteorological Department.
A big change in the weather pattern is expected to begin this week as a shift in the wind will usher drier air into northwestern India.
A group of school children wade through a waterlogged street during monsoon rain in Mumbai, India, Monday, July 8, 2019. India's monsoon season runs from June to September. (AP Photo/Rafiq Maqbool)
This wind shift will mark the beginning of the monsoon's official withdrawal; however, weeks of additional rainfall are expected as the dry air slowly builds from northwest to southeast across the country.
This year's monsoon has already gone down as one of the wettest in recent decades with 110 percent of normal rainfall reported across the country as a whole from June through September. This is the wettest monsoon season since 1994 based on government data.
What makes this season's surplus of rainfall even more dramatic is that a 33-percent shortage compared to normal was reported across the country during the month of June.
People navigate their way through a flooded street as it rains in Mumbai, India, Wednesday, Sept. 4, 2019. Incessant rainfall has resulted in flooding in many parts of the city, disrupting traffic movement and daily life in the city. (AP Photo/Rajanish Kakade)
This was followed by above-normal rainfall amounts in July and August. The historic duration of this monsoon season allowed heavy rainfall to continue for the entire month of September, which resulted in 152 percent of normal rainfall.
This surplus of rain grew even higher during the first week of October, which falls outside of the official monsoon season rainfall.
On Thursday night, Oct. 3, a heavy 60- to 90-minute downpour reached Delhi, dropping 45 mm (1.8 inches) of rain in a short time. Flash flooding led to closed roadways and the flooding of a terminal at the Delhi airport that brought a brief suspension in operations.
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This downpour alone already made this October the wettest since 2013. No rainfall was reported at Indira Gandhi International Airport in October 2017 and 2018.
Dry weather is forecast for New Delhi and the National Capital Region this week. This dry weather will likely continue through the rest of the month.
Rescuers and others gather at the spot after heavy rainfall caused a wall to collapse onto shanties, in Mumbai, India, Tuesday, July 2, 2019. More than a dozen people were killed even as forecasters warned of more rain. (AP Photo/Rafiq Maqbool)
All the flooding in the months leading up to and during the monsoon claimed the lives of 1,673 people as of Sept. 29, according to the India Home Ministry.
This number may rise even higher as downpours continue across southern and eastern parts of the country over the next few weeks.
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The heaviest and most frequent rainfall this week will be focused on areas from southern Maharashtra southward to Kerala. Downpours will raise the risk of flooding from Telangana to northern Andhra Pradesh and Odisha.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will also bring the risk of localized flooding from West Bengal into northeastern India.
Rainfall is forecast to become more widespread across Tamil Nadu, including Chennai where a prolonged drought and water shortages are ongoing.
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