Jerry to strengthen into hurricane as it nears Caribbean islands

By Alex Sosnowski, AccuWeather senior meteorologist

The Atlantic basin has become a cauldron of tropical activity in recent weeks, and the latest system to bubble up far out over the Atlantic Ocean is Tropical Storm Jerry, which came alive in the early-morning hours Wednesday, just on the heels of the rapidly-forming Imelda.

Jerry, the 10th named storm of the Atlantic season, will also go through some rapid intensification and could strengthen into a hurricane before Friday, if not sooner, as it swirls over the open ocean about 1,000 miles from the Leeward Islands. On Wednesday afternoon, Jerry was moving west-northwest at 15 mph and was packing sustained winds of 60 mph.

Interests in the Leeward Islands should closely monitor the strength and path of Jerry, which is forecast to pass nearby and become the Atlantic's fourth hurricane of 2019.

The system rapidly organized on Tuesday into early Wednesday and transition from a tropical disturbance to a tropical depression to the tenth tropical storm of the Atlantic hurricane season in about 18 hours.

The tropical cyclone has the appearance of a well-organized, rapidly strengthening system. The storm has a tightly wound core with high-level clouds fanning outward from the center. Water is sufficiently warm over the region to support further growth.

While strengthening to a hurricane is likely, there is a chance the tropical cyclone could intensify beyond Category 1 status into the end of this week before encountering increasing wind shear that could cause it to go through some weakening this weekend and early next week.

A close-up look of Tropical Storm Jerry over the Atlantic Ocean on Wednesday morning, Sept. 18, 2019. (NOAA/GOES-East)

"At this time, we expect Jerry to continue on a west-northwest path which should take the core of the storm with hurricane-force sustained winds north of the Leewards, including the British and United States Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico spanning Friday and Saturday," Dan Kottlowski, AccuWeather's top hurricane expert, said.

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However, any jog southward by 100 miles or more could bring hurricane conditions to parts of these islands.

At this time, interests from the Leeward Islands to Puerto Rico and Hispaniola should expect building seas with dangerous surf conditions into this weekend.

A couple of drenching squalls with tropical-storm-force gusts will likely pass through with Jerry tracking to the north. This scenario assumes that Jerry will grow in size and a plume of tropical moisture will develop south of the storm.

Should Jerry remain compact in size and no tropical moisture flows northward from the equator, conditions may just be sunny and breezy on the islands with rough surf and seas should Jerry steer north of the islands.

"We are still concerned that Jerry will take a slightly more westerly track," Kottlowski said. "If that happens, Jerry could pass very close to the Leeward Islands and dangerous and damaging conditions could unfold."

Cruise and shipping interests should avoid the waters north of the Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico and Hispaniola late this week through this weekend for the likelihood of dangerous seas.

This weekend into early next week, there are some factors that are likely to influence the path of Jerry, including the strength of high pressure over the central Atlantic Ocean and how far south the jet stream dips on a couple of episodes.

If the high pressure weakens enough and the jet stream dips southward enough, then Jerry should take a curved path to the north and then the northeast. Such a path might allow the storm to avoid passing directly over the Bahamas and making landfall in the United States.

However, if the high remains strong and/or the jet stream fails to dip far enough south to scoop up Jerry, then the storm may continue on a west-northwest path or perhaps a more westerly course. This track could take Jerry across the Turks and Caicos and Bahamas early next week. Jerry could then approach Florida toward the middle of next week.

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