Developing tropical cyclone likely to make landfall in Japan late this weekend

By Brian Thompson, AccuWeather meteorologist

In what has become an active stretch of the West Pacific, another tropical cyclone is expected to develop through the end of the week which may ultimately impact portions of Japan.

Tropical Depression 14W, which will be given the official name Faxai once it becomes a tropical storm, has been gradually organizing to the west of Wake Island as it's been moving to the west-northwest over the past couple of days.

It will pass to the north of the Mariana Islands on Friday and start to turn more to the northwest over the weekend.

Satellite imagery of Tropical Depression 14W shows an increase in thunderstorms on Wednesday, local time. (Image/NOAA)

Strengthening is forecast through the end of the week, and the storm is expected to become a typhoon into the weekend.

"This will be a compact storm during its lifespan, even when it does become a typhoon," said AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Dave Houk. "The fact that it will be a compact storm and will continue to move along at a good pace will limit the overall damage and flood threat across Japan Sunday and Sunday night."

Even though the storm is expected to be small, the threat should not be taken lightly in Japan.

"Especially near the coast of Honshu, including Tokyo, residents should start to prepare now in advance of the storm as although it will impact a relatively small area, the rain and wind will be a threat to life and property."

Rainfall amounts of 75-150 mm (3-6 inches) are expected near where the center of the storm comes ashore, with an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 250 mm (10 inches).

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With a landfall most likely on Honshu, that is where there will be the highest likelihood that winds will reach typhoon force, especially along the coast. Coastal flooding will also be a threat in low-lying areas.

As this storm approaches Japan, Lingling will not be too far off to the north and west, bringing damaging winds and flooding rain to the Korean Peninsula and extreme northeastern China over the weekend.

Even after the storm passes, the pattern looks to remain fairly unsettled across Japan through much of next week, with a few rounds of rain moving through.