As Dorian grows in size, unleashing a broader area of strong winds and heavy rain, the eye of the hurricane may make landfall along the coast of the Carolinas, while making a northeastward turn into Friday.
As of 5 p.m. EDT Wednesday, Dorian was a Category 2 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 110 mph. The hurricane had increased its speed and was moving north-northwest at 8 mph.
"Even though Dorian is much weaker than it was when it devastated the northern Bahamas on Monday, the tropical-storm-force wind field has expanded outward to a maximum of 175 miles and the hurricane-force wind field is now out to 60 miles from the center," according to AccuWeather Hurricane Expert Dan Kottlowski.
That weakening trend is forecast to slow while the storm grows in size and picks up forward speed.
This image, taken on Wednesday, Sept. 4, 2019, shows Dorian as a much larger hurricane than when it blasted the Caribbean and the Bahamas on prior days. (NOAA/GOES-East)
"The strength of Dorian is likely to change little through Thursday morning as it tracks over warm water, through moist air and low wind shear," he added.
The immediate coast from South Carolina to North Carolina can expect hurricane conditions with gusts at or above 74 mph, coastal flooding with a storm surge of 4-7 feet, torrential rainfall average 6-12 inches with an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 15 inches and the risk of isolated tornadoes and waterspouts.
AccuWeather Chief Broadcast Meteorologist Bernie Rayno cautioned strongly that Dorian would make a landfall in South Carolina or North Carolina as the storm moves north.
"The first possibility would be Myrtle Beach Thursday evening," Rayno said, adding that if Dorian spares Myrtle Beach a landfall, the center of the storm will approach within 30 miles of there. After that, Rayno said, "It's the three capes of North Carolina where I think we will get a landfall, or within 20 to 30 miles: Cape Fear, Cape Lookout and Cape Hatteras.
Rayno said he believes the storm's continued northwest movement will lead to an "inevitable" landfall along the Southeast coast.
Winds will be high enough along the Carolina coast to cause widespread tree damage and power outages with some property damage.
Wave action can result in water damage above the predicted 4- to 7-foot storm surge.
The storm surge can also be locally higher along some of the back bays and tidal rivers where water rainfall and runoff meet up with wind-driven water.
Charleston, South Carolina, is among some of several cities that are likely to have significant inundation to storm surge from Dorian.
Coastal areas from northeastern Florida through Georgia and over southeastern Virginia can expect strong tropical storm conditions. In this swath, sporadic power outages and tree damage are likely with minor property damage.
Some roads to the barrier islands in the region will be cut off due to high water and powerful winds. Each high tide cycle will bring progressively higher water levels until the storm passes by to the northeast of a location.
Damaging winds, moderate flooding and storm surge are expected along the coast of the southeastern United States. As a result, Dorian's impact is projected to be a 2 on the AccuWeather RealImpact™ Scale for Hurricanes.
Throughout the coast from northeastern Florida to southeastern Virginia, the long-duration high water levels and pounding waves will result in moderate to major beach erosion.
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No one should venture into the surf in this swath as well as areas through the mid-Atlantic and as far south as southeastern Florida and the northwestern Bahamas due to the high frequency of strong rip currents and powerful waves that can cause serious injury or worse.
While overall conditions, especially the extent and magnitude of river flooding will generally be less severe than that of Matthew, people should not venture out during the storm, and those living in flood-prone areas should heed evacuation orders.
Matthew stalled over the Carolinas. Dorian will pick up forward speed, which will produce substantially less rain on the coast and across the interior, when compared to Matthew.
While some rain will fall on Raleigh, North Carolina, and a gusty shower or thunderstorm may sweep across the Charlotte, North Carolina, and Columbia, South Carolina, areas, no rain associated directly with Dorian is likely to reach Atlanta, Dothan, Alabama, and Tallahassee, Florida.
As the storm pulls away to the northeast over the Atlantic Ocean late this week, northwest winds are likely to push water toward the Outer Banks of North Carolina from Pamlico Sound. This can cause significant coastal flooding as well.
Dorian will bring some rain, wind and coastal problems to the mid-Atlantic and New England to end this week. The storm may strike Nova Scotia and Newfoundland, Canada, directly this weekend.
The weather will improve from south to north across Florida into Friday, across Georgia on Friday and the Carolinas and southeastern Virginia this weekend. However, for a time, tropical storm conditions may persist, even if the sun makes an appearance.
Download the free AccuWeather app to stay alert of tropical and severe weather advisories. Keep checking back for updates on AccuWeather.com and stay tuned to the AccuWeather Network on DirecTV , Frontier and Verizon Fios.
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