Flossie to track over or very close to Hawaii early this week

By Kristina Pydynowski, AccuWeather senior meteorologist

Despite weakening, Flossie will stir rough seas and bring an increase in drenching showers as it tracks much closer to Hawaii than Erick.

Erick passed south of the islands from Friday into Saturday.

Attention has now turned to Tropical Depression Flossie, which will pass just to the north of the Hawaiian Islands later Monday through Tuesday (local time).

"Since Flossie has maintained a more westward track, a landfall cannot be ruled out as the storm passes very close to the island chain," according to AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Dan Pydynowski. "Regardless of whether the center of Flossie reaches land, the impacts on the Hawaiian Islands will stay the same."

Flossie is expected to weaken further to a tropical rainstorm before making its closest approach to Hawaii.

Despite weakening, seas will be rough and rip currents will increase in strength and number through early this week along the north- and east-facing shores of the islands.

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Surf may become too dangerous for beachgoers and inexperienced boarders. All swimmers and boarders should heed local restrictions.

"Flossie can also bring locally gusty winds and bands of heavy rainfall to Hawaii," Pydynowski said. Top wind gusts should generally be held to 40 mph or less.

"As Flossie approaches, winds may increase and briefly heighten the fire danger into Monday over the drier leeward locations," according to AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist John Feerick. "While this threat is usually higher when a storm passes by to the south, as was the case with Erick, residents should still remain vigilant."

While the track of Flossie will keep the heaviest rainfall to the north and east of Hawaii, the storm is still expected to bring an increase in drenching showers across the islands from Monday through Tuesday night. A few incidents of flash flooding cannot be ruled out.

In addition to affecting windward areas, downpours can develop or spread to some of the typically drier leeward locations as Flossie disrupts the typical trade wind weather pattern and ushers more humid conditions across the islands.

Despite the immediate disruptions to residents and vacationers, tropical downpours would aid in easing the ongoing drought across the Big Island and the leeward areas of Maui.

This satellite image from Sunday evening, Aug. 4, 2019, shows Flossie approaching Hawaii. (RAMMB/Satellite)

By the middle of the week, Flossie should make more of a northward turn away from Hawaii, allowing the trade wind pattern with windward showers to resume later in the week.

Erick and Flossie won't be the last tropical systems to affect Hawaii this year.

“The island chain will likely be subject to even more tropical threats in the coming months as AccuWeather meteorologists expect an above-normal hurricane season in the eastern and central Pacific,” according to AccuWeather Meteorologist Reneé Duff.

The next threat, however, will not come from Gil, which formed on Saturday about 900 miles southwest of the southern tip of Mexico's Baja California.

Gil was briefly a tropical storm but quickly fizzled over the open waters of the eastern Pacific Ocean late Sunday.

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