Tropical downpours aim at Caribbean Islands despite development chances fizzling

By Kristina Pydynowski, AccuWeather senior meteorologist

By Alex Sosnowski, AccuWeather senior meteorologist

While odds are against a tropical disturbance becoming a depressionand named storm, an increase in showers and thunderstorms are expected across the Caribbean Islands this week.

The feature, dubbed 96L, remains disorganized over the central Atlantic Ocean and is not expected to overcome the obstacles in its path to develop into the basin's next tropical depression or storm.

"Dry, dusty and stable air continues to inhibit the development and organization of this system, even though it is tracking through a zone of warm water and relatively low wind shear," according to AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Dan Pydynowski.

The tropical feature being monitored by AccuWeather meteorologists was seen churning westward toward the Lesser Antilles on Sunday, Aug. 4, 2019. (RAMMB/Satellite)

The feature is expected to track through the Leeward Islands early this week and remain on a path where conditions are not conducive for tropical development.

Strong wind shear can prevent a tropical storm from forming, and that is what lies over the northern Caribbean Sea and the southwestern Atlantic Ocean.

"Given all these factors, at this time, the window for 96L to develop into a more organized tropical system over the next few days appears to be very low," Pydynowski stated.

Regardless of development, this robust tropical feature will spread showers and thunderstorms westward from the Lesser Antilles to Puerto Rico and Hispaniola through the middle part of this week.

Vacation plans can be disrupted for a time, and there can be a few incidents of flooding in urban and poor drainage areas.

During the middle of last week, another tropical disturbance brought drenching downpours and localized flooding to Puerto Rico and the United States Virgin Islands.

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However, parts of the Caribbean are in need of rain. According to the latest report from the U.S. Drought Monitor, southern Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands were in the midst of a moderate to severe drought as of July 30.

Outside of 96L, there are no tropical waves crossing the Atlantic Ocean that show signs of developing this week.

On average, close to 60 tropical waves are produced over Africa and move westward across the Atlantic each year. During the period from August to September, a tropical wave emerges from Africa every two to four days.

When a tropical storm or hurricane develops from one of these waves, it is considered to be a Cabo Verde or Cape Verde system, named for a group of islands near the west coast of Africa.

In general, the Cabo Verde disturbances and storms tend to be pushed along by the clockwise circulation around a semi-permanent high pressure area over the central Atlantic Ocean.

Meanwhile, Flossie in the Pacific Ocean remains on a path that will take the storm very close to or over Hawaii early this week.

As the storm's weakening trend continues, rough surf and an increase in drenching showers will be Flossie's main impacts on Hawaii.

Download the free AccuWeather app to keep track of the latest tropical activity. Keep checking back for updates on AccuWeather.com and stay tuned to the AccuWeather Network on DirecTV, Frontier and Verizon Fios.