Flooding downpours from tropical threat to shift into Mexico to start June

By Brian Thompson , AccuWeather meteorologist

By Adam Douty, AccuWeather senior meteorologist

The tropical disturbance that brought heavy rain to Central America late week will bring potentially flooding downpours to Mexico through the start of the week.

On Saturday, heavy downpours will continue across Guatemala and western portions of El Salvador. Downpours will also begin to spread over eastern Mexico to Villahermosa.

More of Mexico will be next in line for the threat of heavy rain, flooding and mudslides as this tropical low moves into the southwestern Gulf of Mexico.

"Bouts of heavy rain and thunderstorms will continue to spread over southern and eastern Mexico later this weekend and early next week," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Rob Miller said.

Any thunderstorms can also produce locally damaging winds, but these will be isolated cases. Widespread strong winds are not expected.

In these places, 150-300 mm (6-12 inches) of rain is expected from Saturday to Tuesday, with an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 450 mm (18 inches). The heaviest rainfall amounts will likely be over the Mexican state of Veracruz and southern portions of Tamaulipas.

This area of heaviest rain includes the cities of Tampico and Veracruz, where a month's worth of rain could fall in just a few days.

Tampico averages nearly 200 mm (7.85 inches) of rain during the month of June, while Veracruz averages 114 mm (4.50 inches) of rain.

"Flash flooding will be possible from Tampico to Veracruz and into the nearby mountains," Miller said.

This amount of rain over such a short period of time will be enough to cause flooding and mudslides and could wash out roads and bridges in some places. Travel delays are also expected.

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A large area of low pressure is the catalyst for these heavy downpours. A piece of energy moving around this system will be the spark that brings heavy rain to the eastern coast of Mexico from Sunday through Tuesday.

It remains possible that this disturbance could develop into a tropical depression before moving into eastern Mexico by Tuesday. Significant tropical development, however, is not expected. If the low manages to briefly develop into a tropical storm, it would be named Barry.

By the middle of next week, downpours will become more localized from around Tampico to southern Texas.