After a lull during the Easter holiday weekend, the risk for severe weather and flooding downpours will ramp back up across the south-central United States this week.
The dry spell that has aided cleanup in the wake of the recent rounds of severe weather will come to an end as a cold front drops into the southern High Plains on Monday.
The front will serve as the focal point for a narrow swath of severe weather from Lawton, Oklahoma, to Lubbock, Texas, and Clovis, New Mexico, late Monday afternoon and evening.
"The strongest of these thunderstorms can become severe with large hail and damaging winds, mainly south of Interstate 40," according to AccuWeather Meteorologist Jake Sojda, "but then will transition into a mainly heavy rain threat overnight from northeastern New Mexico through the Texas Panhandle and into Oklahoma."
The risk for flooding and severe weather will expand across more of the southern Plains Tuesday into Wednesday night as a storm slowly emerges from the Desert Southwest.
A new round of thunderstorms will erupt from around Oklahoma City to Wichita Falls, Midland and San Angelo, Texas, Tuesday afternoon and evening.
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"Again, thunderstorms firing on Tuesday afternoon in this region could be severe initially before transitioning to a heavy rain and flooding threat for the overnight hours," Sojda stated.
These heavy thunderstorms may spread to the Dallas area on Tuesday night.
On Wednesday, soaking rain is expected to overspread central Texas with yet another round of severe weather firing on its southern and eastern flank.
"Wednesday looks to bring the greatest chance for severe thunderstorms from southern to eastern Texas and into western Louisiana as the storm responsible begins to strengthen a bit," Sojda said.
The I-10 corridor from San Antonio to Houston and Beaumont, Texas, is among the communities at risk Wednesday into Wednesday night.
AccuWeather Extreme Meteorologist Reed Timmer spotted rotation in a supercell north of Sunset, Texas, on April 17, 2019. (Twitter/@ReedTimmerAccu)
"Damaging winds and large hail will remain the primary threats, but these hazards will likely be more widespread than on Monday and Tuesday," according to Sojda. "There may also be a higher threat for tornadoes as well on Wednesday when compared to earlier in the week."
Between the rounds of thunderstorms and heavy rain, the flood danger will also ramp up at midweek.
"Central into northeastern Texas will bear the brunt of the heavy rainfall and flood threat," Sojda stated.
This includes the corridor in and around I-35 from San Antonio to Austin and the Dallas-Fort Worth Metroplex. The heaviest rain may also expand northward up I-35 to Ardmore, Oklahoma.
AccuWeather meteorologists are also monitoring the potential for Houston to be included in the greatest risk for flooding, along with facing severe weather.
"Widespread rainfall totals of 2-4 inches are likely in this region with an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 8 inches," according to Sojda.
In the flood-prone areas that are hit the hardest, residents may be forced to evacuate.
"Travel disruptions can be expected," AccuWeather Meteorologist Jim Andrews said. "For example, typically dry low-water crossings can become inundated and lead to road closures."
Even where roads remain open, downpours from the heavy rain and thunderstorms at anytime this week in the South Central states will bring poor driving conditions.
Motorists will be faced with dramatically reduced visibility and a heightened risk of vehicles hydroplaning when traveling at highway speeds.
Drier weather will gradually filter into the southern Plains on Thursday as the storm focuses on the lower Mississippi Valley.
"The storm can bring flooding downpours and locally damaging thunderstorms from Arkansas and Louisiana into Mississippi," Sojda stated.
"A slight tornado threat will remain on Thursday, but any tornadoes will likely be of the 'brief spin-up' variety rather than stronger and longer-tracking tornadoes," he added.
Regardless, it only takes one tornado to damage a community and put lives at risk.
Download the free AccuWeather app to remain aware of any threats for flooding or severe weather in your community. Keep checking back for updates on AccuWeather.com and stay tuned to the AccuWeather Network on DirecTV, Frontier and Verizon Fios.
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