Tropical storm likely to form near Madagascar by end of the weekend

By Courtney Spamer, AccuWeather meteorologist

By Eric Leister, AccuWeather senior meteorologist

A tropical depression moving across the Mozambique Channel will likely strengthen and bring flooding rain and strong winds to Madagascar and parts of the Mozambique coastline into next week.

As the low drifts eastward toward Madagascar, it will move into an area favorable for strengthening.

The warm water, in combination with lower wind shear over the region, will produce ideal conditions for tropical development and further strengthening.

"While there is some uncertainty on how strong the tropical cyclone will become, there is a high probability that it becomes at least a tropical storm," said AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Jason Nicholls.

By the end of the weekend as the storm continues to move towards Madagascar, a strong tropical storm in the Atlantic Ocean is expected. It will strengthen into a severe tropical storm with sustained winds equal to a strong tropical storm.

While the strongest winds will remain offshore during this time, gusty winds are expected from near Mahajanga southward to Mainirano. A few gusts up to 65 km/h (40 mph) are possible during this time.

Areas that experience a prolonged onshore wind will also be at risk for coastal flooding. Rough surf and seas will also be a concern along the west coast of Madagascar into early next week.

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Prior to reaching the coast of Madagascar, this new tropical threat is expected to stall and then turn southwest back toward Mozambique.

With the extended exposure over the warm water, there is a chance this storm could strengthen into a tropical cyclone or Intense Tropical Cyclone, with wind gusts over 160 km/h (100 mph).

The storm may then approach the central coastline of Mozambique near Beira by the middle of next week. Landfall as a powerful and dangerous tropical cyclone is possible during this time.

Regardless of how strong this tropical low becomes, flooding rain will be a concern for the locations surrounding the Mozambique Channel, including Mozambique and much of Madagascar.

Check the AccuWeather tropical page for the latest details on tropical systems around the globe.

The above image shows an infrared satellite snapshot of the low off the coast of Mozambique, (also known as 98s) on Friday (Photo/NOAA).