River flooding to persist well into spring 2019 over central US

By Alex Sosnowski, AccuWeather senior meteorologist

The bomb cyclone this week has set into motion the big surge of water that will flow from the small streams to the progressively larger rivers, which are likely to be above flood stage for many weeks this spring.

Rain and melting snow from the storm have already produced record high water levels along portions of the Boyer and Floyd rivers in Iowa and the Loup River in Nebraska and others.

These rivers and others flow into progressively larger rivers. Generally, the larger the stream, the longer it takes for flooding to cycle through. 

Nati Harnik/AP

A Welcome to Wahoo sign stands in flood waters outside Wahoo, Neb., Wednesday, March 13, 2019. (AP Photo/Nati Harnik)

Flood waters in Cascade, Iowa, on Thursday. (Photo/@everythinglo18)

Nati Harnik/AP

Jim Freeman tries to saw through thick ice slabs on his property in Fremont, Neb., Thursday, March 14, 2019, after the Ice-covered Platte River flooded it's banks. (AP Photo/Nati Harnik)

Nati Harnik/AP

Thick slabs of ice slabs surround a structure in Fremont, Neb., Thursday, March 14, 2019, after the ice-covered Platte River flooded it's banks. (AP Photo/Nati Harnik)

A baseball field flooded in Atlantic, Iowa. (Photo/Avery Andersen)

Nati Harnik/AP

Drivers go through flooded highway 92, as the Cottonwood and Wahoo creeks overflow their banks, in Wahoo, Neb., Wednesday, March 13, 2019. (AP Photo/Nati Harnik)

Streets flooded in Boone, Iowa, on Thursday. (Photo/Michael Martz)

Flood waters in Cascade, Iowa, on Thursday. (Photo/@everythinglo18)

Flood waters in Cascade, Iowa, on Thursday. (Photo/@everythinglo18)

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This year will be a notable flood year for much of the Mississippi, including its major tributaries such as the Ohio and Missouri rivers, factoring in flooding that has already occurred and what is likely to occur moving forward.

Heavy snowfall this winter and the upcoming spring thaw with episodes of heavy rain are escalating the river flooding concerns into the spring, including along the Mississippi, Missouri and lower Ohio rivers.

The Ohio River at Cairo, Illinois, has been above flood stage for many weeks and is expected to continue to fluctuate between major and moderate flood stage through the end of March.

However, the worst flooding may be yet to come for some areas along the upper and middle portions of the Mississippi River as much of the snow over the northern Plains, Upper Midwest and central High Plains melts.

A general 1-3 feet of snow is on the ground over the northern tier. Within that, there is 2-10 inches of water locked up in the snow from the Dakotas to northern Michigan as of the middle of March.

A road is flooded near Ceresco, Neb., Wednesday, March 13, 2019. (AP Photo/Nati Harnik)

At Rock Island, Illinois, here is a greater than 90 percent chance of major flooding along the Mississippi River during mid- to late April, according to National Weather Service hydrologists.

Significant flooding during the spring and early summer occurs roughly every three to five years along the Mississippi River.

However, widespread major flooding episodes occur roughly one to two times per decade along at least some portion of the mighty waterway.

Meanwhile, at Grand Forks, North Dakota, the Red River of the North has a greater than 90 percent chance of reaching minor flood stage and a 75 percent chance of reaching moderate flood stage during the middle of April.

The Red River flows northward from a warmer climate to a colder climate like several rivers in Siberia. It is not uncommon for the headwaters to thaw before areas farther north. This can lead to significant lowland area flooding.

"From an agricultural standpoint, this is a 'wait and see' situation as to exactly how bad the flooding will be," according to AccuWeather Agricultural Meteorologist Dale Mohler.

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"Typically, even during years with widespread major river flooding, water only affects a fraction of agricultural lands," Mohler said. "However, there will likely be some patches well away from the rivers where water lingers in the fields for many weeks into the planting season."

In addition, the Mississippi River is used for transport of grains and other cargo. Tugboats can push multiple barges, more than a dozen, at one time. However, when river levels are high, the current is very strong. When this happens, the number of barges that can be pulled must be reduced and lowers the efficiency of the transportation method.

Farther south, multiple heavy rain events pushed river levels to moderate and major flood stage over portions of the Tennessee and lower Mississippi basins during the winter.

A school bus travels along a levee road near the Eagle Lake community near Vicksburg, Miss., Friday, March 1, 2019. (AP Photo/Rogelio V. Solis)

Looking ahead

"A break from major storms is forecast over much of the U.S. from Friday through this weekend," according to AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Brett Anderson.

This should help streams and small rivers recede across the North Central states.

"It is possible the break from major storms may last a few weeks across the northern tier," according to AccuWeather Lead Long-Range Meteorologist Paul Pastelok.

Below-freezing temperatures at night will also help slow the rate of melting snow across the north next week.

However, with inevitable melting snow coming for the northern tier and large rivers already enraged from recent storms, a long-lasting flooding event is likely for many communities along the Mississippi River and others this spring.

Pastelok is concerned that more big storms with heavy rain may resume during late March to early April over the South Central states, which may renew or aggravate the flooding situation over the Tennessee and lower Mississippi valley region.

As a result, much of the length of the Mississippi River may experience flooding at the same time this spring.

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