By Renee Duff, AccuWeather meteorologist
The welcome break in wet weather across the flood-weary southern United States will come to an end as downpours increase late this week and into the weekend.
Through midweek, the bulk of the downpours will stay south of the areas hit by recent flooding and severe weather, focusing generally along the Interstate 10 corridor from southeastern Texas and Louisiana to Florida.
Locally strong thunderstorms can rumble along this swath with gusty winds and hail.
People spending any length of time outdoors along this corridor, including those vacationing at the beaches, should head indoors at the first stroke of lightning or clap of thunder.
Stormy weather will spread northward through the lower Mississippi and Tennessee valleys beyond midweek, where streams and rivers remain swollen.
The Cairo Ohio River Bridge, which connects Kentucky and Illinois, was closed last Friday due to flooding, according to the Associated Press. The bridge is expected to remain closed until at least March 6.
The Ohio River at Cairo, Illinois, is forecast by National Weather Service hydrologists to remain at major flood stage into at least the middle of next week.
A few systems will continue to produce rounds of rain along the Gulf of Mexico states into the first weekend of March, according to AccuWeather Lead Long-Range Meteorologist Paul Pastelok.
“This will make it hard to plan for outdoor activities,” he added.
One round of rain will move from west to east across the Southern states from Thursday to Friday. The I-10, I-20 and I-40 corridors can be dampened with this round.
A more potent system containing widespread, heavy downpours may then sweep through over the weekend. This second system can bring a higher risk of new or worsening flooding problems.
These rounds of rain will largely spare the Ohio River Valley.
“Areas from northern Louisiana to Kentucky and the southern Appalachian Mountains are highly susceptible to new flooding following this excessively wet February,” AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Kristina Pydynowski said.
With a total of 13.47 inches, this month is now the wettest February on record at Nashville, Tennessee, and the city’s seventh all-time wettest month.
A February rainfall record was also set at Huntsville, Alabama, with 12.60 inches.
Three weather-related deaths have been reported in Tennessee after flooding this past weekend, according to WTVF. A state of emergency remains in place for 14 counties across the state.
The Mississippi River, south of the confluence with the Ohio River, is expected to keep rising through at least the first full week in March as water drains downstream.
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Even if the upcoming rounds of rain fail to trigger new or worsening flooding problems, disruptions to travel and outdoor plans are anticipated.
Motorists should anticipate times of slower travel on the highways, as well as reduced visibility from the downpours and blowing spray from other vehicles.
Beyond midweek, the stormy weather will stay north of the Florida Peninsula and generally confined to northern parts of the state, which is good news for those heading to Major League Baseball spring training games or the PGA Tour event in Palm Beach Gardens.
Pastelok is concerned about another storm bringing a heightened risk of heavy rain and flooding to the Tennessee Valley and Gulf states around March 8-12.
Download the free AccuWeather app to see exactly when rain can dampen your area, and to receive the latest flood alerts.
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