India heat to worsen next week as tropical threats brew offshore

By Kristina Pydynowski, AccuWeather senior meteorologist

May 18, 2018, 11:45:09 AM EDT

Dangerous heat is expected to worsen across northern India next week as both the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal are monitored for tropical cyclone development.

After a few thunderstorms developed over northwestern India late this week, high pressure will re-intensify across the region by early next week.

That will put a lid on additional tropical development and cause temperatures to challenge the highest readings so far this year.

Temperatures are expected to reach or crack 43 C (110 F) in the National Capital Region (NCR) and Lucknow early in the week. Highs around 46 C (115 F) will continue to be recorded in Ahmadabad.

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Such heat is dangerous for the millions of people and animals living across northern India.

Be sure to drink plenty of water, wear light-clothing and avoid strenuous activities during the midday and afternoon hours (the hottest times of the day). Care should be taken to ensure the elderly and children are following these precautions, while ensuring animals have proper shelter.

No relief will come at night. Temperatures in the NCR will only dip between 27 and 29 C (lower 80s F) at night, preventing buildings without air conditioning from cooling.

Double concern for tropical cyclone development

As northern India endures a continuation of the scorching heat that may not ease until the monsoon commences in June, attention will also focus on the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal for potential tropical cyclone development.

Unsettled weather across both of these bodies of water may brew into a more organized storm during the upcoming week.

"Conditions will be conducive for any storm over the Arabian Sea to strengthen into a depression or cyclonic storm later next week," AccuWeather Meteorologist Evan Duffey said.

The weather pattern should favor the cyclone tracking to the north or northwest, according to Duffey.

"At this point, impacts to the west coast of southern India from this feature look to be minimal," he said, "but areas from Yemen and Oman to western India will need to monitor the tropics closely through next week."

At the same time, another storm may also attempt to keep the Indian Basin active following Cyclonic Storm Sagar.

"There is concern for tropical development in the Bay of Bengal late next week, though confidence is lower than with the threat in the Arabian Sea," Duffey said.

If the storm takes shape, one scenario is that it could turn toward eastern India.

"Regardless of development, residents in eastern India between Andhra Pradesh and West Bengal should monitor this system for any potential impacts, such as flooding rain, later in the week," Duffey said.

The dangers would shift to Bangladesh if the storm, assuming it develops, tracks more to the north.

Ahead of any potential cyclone, now is a good time for residents to review evacuation and preparation plans in the event a tropical threat arises.