Bouts of frigid air to pave way for frequent winter storms in central, eastern US in February

By Alex Sosnowski, AccuWeather senior meteorologist

January 27,2018, 11:28:11AM,EST

As waves of arctic air return to the northern part of the United States and warmth holds in the South, a busy winter storm track will set up during the first half of February.

Recall that during late December and early January, arctic air swept and sprawled across much of the central and eastern U.S. The cold, dry air prevented heavy snowfall in most areas, except for the Deep South and lake-effect snow in the North.

During much of the first two weeks of February, the waves of arctic air may set up differently.

Following a storm around Groundhog Day, colder air is forecast to push southward. The arctic, or coldest batch, of air is likely to extend across the Great Lakes, New York state and New England next weekend.

After that initial southerly push of cold air, the arctic portion is likely to extend in a more west to east fashion across the northern half of the nation into the middle of February and hence help to set up the active storm track.

"We have high confidence that frigid air will return and linger from the northern Rockies to the northern Plains and Upper Midwest," according to AccuWeather Lead Long-Range Meteorologist Paul Pastelok.

Temperatures may be no higher than the single digits and may not exceed the average low temperatures on Super Bowl Sunday in Minneapolis. The average high is in the middle 20s F with an average low near 8 F.

"Back-and-forth cold and mild air are likely from the central Rockies, central Plains, Tennessee Valley, mid-Atlantic and coastal New England," Pastelok said. "Temperatures may still average near to above normal in the coastal Northeast during the pattern."

A weather battleground is likely to set up. A strong temperature contrast from north to south will exist. After storms roll in from the Pacific, they will tap into moisture from the Gulf of Mexico.

The result may be a smorgasbord of precipitation ranging from rain and thunderstorms in the Deep South, snow across the northern tier and a wintry mix, including ice, in between.

There is the potential for the storms to be so close together that some communities may barely get a break of dry weather for a full calendar day.

The track of each storm will vary from one to the next, and it is too early to speculate on the exact track of each storm. The stronger storms will tend to track from southwest to northeast, rather than west to east.

Should the atmosphere fully capitalize on the stormy setup, there is the potential for drought-ending rain, flooding and perhaps severe weather on the storms' southern flank and heavy snow farther north.

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Where snow from one storm is wiped out by rain from another, there may be an enhanced risk of flooding. There is also the potential for the snowfall deficit in some areas from the Rockies to the mid-Atlantic coast to be erased by just one of the storms.

A buildup of ice may occur periodically where a shallow layer of arctic air sneaks in for a time.

The stormy pattern may cause widespread, frequent travel disruptions and frustrations to airline passengers. Where wintry precipitation dominates, there is the risk of some communities exceeding their budget for snow removal and running out of resources to combat the storms.

"More persistent colder air may expand to the Atlantic Seaboard toward the middle and latter part of February," Pastelok said.

The details on the pattern and individual storms will unfold in the coming days with updates to follow on AccuWeather mobile and desktop as well as in video coverage in apps.

Weekly wrap-up: Rare snow blankets Tokyo; Tsunami threat rattles Alaska, British Columbia

By Katy Galimberti, AccuWeather staff writer

January 26,2018, 9:40:53AM,EST

A powerful storm unleashed blizzard conditions and over a foot of travel-snarling snow across the midwestern United States this week.

The snowstorm began over the Rockies on Sunday, forcing nearly 200 flights to be canceled at Denver International Airport. The heaviest snow fell along a narrow swath from northwestern Kansas through Nebraska, northwestern Iowa and south-central Minnesota, with widespread totals of 8-14 inches.

Visibility became so poor that the Platte County Highway Department in Nebraska pulled snow removal crews off the roads on Monday morning.

The Minnesota State Patrol reported over 600 crashes and vehicle spin-outs as well as dozens of jackknifed semi-trailers from midnight to 8:45 p.m. CST Monday.

A major winter storm blasted Tokyo this week as 9 inches (23 cm) of snow fell in the city. The storm dropped the most snow the city has seen since 2014. 

A man removes snow at Kanda Myojin shrine in Tokyo Tuesday, Jan. 23, 2018. Metropolitan areas encountered rare snowfall Monday and many traffic system disrupted due to fallen snow. (AP Photo/Eugene Hoshiko)

According to NHK News, Tokyo Electric Power Company reported that snow and wind affected electric wires and caused 59,000 household electricity blackouts.

The unusual amount of snow prompted many travel delays, including some road closures, according to Reuters. At Tokyo International Airport, about 250 departing flights were canceled, with at least 21 flights canceled for Tuesday. At Narita International Airport, two runways were closed due to snow.

Snow also caused problems in Switzerland this week where world leaders gathered for the World Economic Forum.

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Many of the 3,000 delegates struggled to get to the resort high in the Alps where the summit was held in Davos, Reuters reported. More than 63 inches (159 cm) of snow fell at the start of the week, according to Swiss officials.

Some early meetings were canceled. Reuters reported business men in suits slipping on ice and trudging through piles of snow to get to their accommodations.

Heavy rain has plagued northern France this weekend and caused the Seine River in Paris to swell out of its banks. 

People walk on the Alma bridge by the Zouave statue which is used as a measuring instrument during floods in Paris, on Thursday, 25 January 2018. (AP Photo/Christophe Ena)

Flooding also inundated roads, railways and walking paths. The Seine River reached 18.3 feet (5.6 meters) on Thursday night.

The Louvre closed its lower section as a precaution. Similar flooding ensued in 2016, forcing workers to evacuate 35,000 pieces of art.

A magnitude 7.9 earthquake struck off the coast of Alaska early Tuesday morning, triggering tsunami warnings from the Aleutian Islands to British Columbia. The West Coast of the United States was also put under alert for potential tsunami waves.

All tsunami watches and warnings were eventually canceled but not before some residents were told to seek higher ground.

A tsunami had been confirmed, but it did not pose any major threat to land.

Photos: Crews work around the clock to clean millions of pounds of debris after Montecito mudslides

By Amanda Schmidt, AccuWeather staff writer

January 26,2018, 9:35:30AM,EST

Rescuers have worked tirelessly in the weeks following the deadly mudslides in Southern California to clean the millions of pounds of mud and debris that buried the region.

The mudslides followed shortly after an active month of wildfires in December. One in which the largest fire in California history raged: the Thomas Fire.

The massive December wildfires left burn scars that increased the likelihood of mudslides. Heavy rain on Tuesday, Jan. 9, triggered powerful debris flows and flash flooding that wreaked havoc in the region.

"Mud doesn’t just knock things over. For example, it didn’t just knock trees over, it uprooted them, it uplifted them out of the ground and carried them down. In some cases, it carried large vehicles for miles," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Ken Clark said.

At least 21 people have been reported dead and two remain actively missing. Over 100 homes have been destroyed and hundreds more damaged as a result of the powerful mud, according to a Santa Barbara County Incident Update.

"There are some pictures of houses that were covered up to the roof with mud and that’s how deep it got. And that is some of the reason why there has been so much loss of life. It isn’t just a little creek that brought a little mud in; it is a large hillside that gave way due to the loss of vegetation from the fire," Clark said.

A Cal Fire search and rescue crew walks through mud near homes damaged by storms in Montecito, Calif., Friday, Jan. 12, 2018. (AP Photo/Marcio Jose Sanchez)

Emergency personnel, many of whom have been working tirelessly since the wildfires, have been working around the clock in an effort to clean the debris and mud that lie in the path of the mudslides.

"Think how heavy mud can be. Now that it’s there, it is going really hard to get rid of, especially once it dries up, it's a huge problem. That’s why it’s taking so long to clean," Clark said.

The mudslides affected approximately 30 square-miles, 19,200 acres, of land in Santa Barbara County. The coastal town of Montecito was one of the hardest hit.

The local, state and federal governments are working together to clear hundreds of thousands of cubic yards of material, which includes mud, sediment, cobble, boulders, debris from trees and vegetation and more, according to Santa Barbara County Flood Control Engineering Manager Jonathan Frye.

“It’s moving along; we’ve got a good start,” Frye said. “It is just an enormous amount of material that came down from the mountains.”

The cleanup of the public infrastructure is estimated to take weeks, while the cleanup of the private areas may take months or longer, according to Frye.

“The work that we’re doing is of urgent priority because we’re trying to ready our creeks and debris basins for the next rain event,” Frye said.

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Cleanup efforts are ongoing and still very active. The U.S. Army Corps. of Engineers (USACE) are working 24-hour days, setting up light stands at their work locations so they can continue when it gets dark out. Also, the local government works shifts from sunup to sundown.

It is next to impossible to put exact numbers on many of the stats surrounding the situation. How many pounds of mud and debris? How many people are working? How many cubic yards are covered?

“What we’re finding is that our initial estimates are low. Debris basins and creek channels that go from the basins down to the oceans are covered with about half a million cubic yards of material, and that’s just a really rough guess,” Frye said.

There are 11 debris basins being cleaned out by the USACE. Using one debris basin as an example, it will have three to five excavators, a couple front-end loaders, traffic control and up to 30 trucks hauling in and out.

Not every debris basin has the same amount of resources but multiply that one basin by 11 for a rough estimate, and that’s just the USACE resources alone. The other levels of government have their own resources and are also contracting out to local contractors, Frye said.

"It’s fair to say that there are hundreds of trucks, hundreds of personnel working those trucks and bulldozers and excavators and water trucks and street sweepers, it goes on and on. So, a lot of resources are being put forward to attack this," Frye said.

The critical issue that the community now faces is where to move all of this material.

“There are very limited areas to take this material to. The State Office of Emergency Services has lined up a disposal yard down in Ventura County Fair Grounds. A lot of material is going down there for initial disposal,” Frye said.

The issue with disposing the material in either Buellton or Ventura is that it’s quite a long haul, making the process drag on longer.

“There is an issue with the longer the haul, the more trucks you utilize, the more congestion there is, and so on. Disposal sites are one of the constraining issues that we have in quickly getting rid of this material,” Frye said.

Once at the Ventura County Fair Grounds and other initial disposal sites, the material is sorted by various components, such as mud and sediment or rock and boulder.

Some of that material, the sandy material, goes back to Santa Barbara County to be disposed at two beach locations. So far, 35 cubic yards of that material has been accepted at the beaches.

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While the disposal of this material raises safety concerns for the water supply, the situation is being monitored and warnings have been sent out.

There are monitors at both ends of the chains, not only on the truck side but also on the disposal end, the beach side, of the material, Frye said.

“We believe it is crucial to vitalize these beach disposal locations because it’s crucial that these debris basins, creek channels and bridges get unplugged,” Frye said.

These debris basins and creek channels have conveyance capacities once cleared that will be useful in the next rain event.

“We’re in a tough spot here of getting this stuff out. If we don’t get these channels and basins cleaned out by the next time there is a rainstorm then these chocked conveyance channels will kick flow out of channels and go on roads,” Frye said. "We will be in this situation that we have been trying to get ourselves out of."

Santa Barbara County Public Health Department has issued several warnings since the mudslide, due to elevated bacteria levels in ocean waters. Ocean water testing shows markedly elevated levels of Coliform bacteria along beaches from El Capitan to Carpinteria since Jan. 11.

For example on Jan. 20, the Public Health Department warned the public to avoid consuming recreational harvested raw shellfish caught in ocean waters where bacterial levels continue to be elevated.

Santa Barbara County released a list of safety and protection tips in the midst of the cleanup efforts and the re-population of the affected areas.

Persistent storms to elevate flood, avalanche risk in northwestern US

By Renee Duff, AccuWeather meteorologist

January 27,2018, 3:22:01AM,EST

As storms tap into tropical moisture and snow levels rise, the risk of flash flooding and avalanches will increase across the northwestern United States into early next week.

Warm, dry conditions will dominate the Southwest this weekend, but it will be a different story for residents farther north, where umbrellas, rain jackets and windshield wipers will get extensive use.

Storms with significant precipitation will track across the Pacific Ocean and take aim at the Northwest and southwestern Canada into early next week.

The risk of flash, urban and river flooding will increase with each storm.

The next wave of moisture will slam into Washington and Oregon through Saturday afternoon. 

Despite rising during the event, snow levels will remain at or below pass level in Washington. Travelers over Interstate 90’s Snoqualmie Pass will once again need to be prepared for lane closures and treacherous driving conditions following the numerous delays from snow this week.

In the Oregon Cascades, warmer air pressing in will bring a changeover from snow to rain for elevations generally below 5,000 feet.

“Gusty winds could also be locally damaging at the coasts and in the mountains,” AccuWeather Meteorologist Jordan Root said. Tree damage and sporadic power outages are possible.

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A second, warmer storm will arrive by Sunday.

“This [storm] will bring an even deeper river of tropical moisture into the region,” Root said.

Root anticipates the heaviest rain to fall over Vancouver Island in British Columbia and the Olympic Mountains and northern Cascades in Washington.

The west-facing slopes of Washington’s Olympic and Cascade ranges, where the snowpack is feet deep, will be at highest risk of flooding and landslides due to the combination of rising snow levels, rainfall and melting snow. 

After dropping below flood stage on Thursday night, the Skokomish River in northwestern Washington is projected to again reach flood stage by the end of the weekend.

Other small streams and rivers throughout the region will be in jeopardy of overflowing their banks.

Parts of Washington may get a break from the deluge on Sunday night as the heaviest precipitation lifts northward for a time into southwestern Canada. However, the damp weather, as well as much colder air, will sag southward at the start of the new week.

After being soaked by rain for part of the weekend, snow will again fall to pass level in Washington by Tuesday. The dramatic fluctuation in snow levels over the next several days may cause the existing snowpack to become unstable enough to trigger avalanches.

Showery weather is likely to persist across the region into the middle of next week.