Bouts of frigid air to pave way for frequent winter storms in central, eastern US in February

By Alex Sosnowski, AccuWeather senior meteorologist

January 27,2018, 11:28:11AM,EST

As waves of arctic air return to the northern part of the United States and warmth holds in the South, a busy winter storm track will set up during the first half of February.

Recall that during late December and early January, arctic air swept and sprawled across much of the central and eastern U.S. The cold, dry air prevented heavy snowfall in most areas, except for the Deep South and lake-effect snow in the North.

During much of the first two weeks of February, the waves of arctic air may set up differently.

Following a storm around Groundhog Day, colder air is forecast to push southward. The arctic, or coldest batch, of air is likely to extend across the Great Lakes, New York state and New England next weekend.

After that initial southerly push of cold air, the arctic portion is likely to extend in a more west to east fashion across the northern half of the nation into the middle of February and hence help to set up the active storm track.

"We have high confidence that frigid air will return and linger from the northern Rockies to the northern Plains and Upper Midwest," according to AccuWeather Lead Long-Range Meteorologist Paul Pastelok.

Temperatures may be no higher than the single digits and may not exceed the average low temperatures on Super Bowl Sunday in Minneapolis. The average high is in the middle 20s F with an average low near 8 F.

"Back-and-forth cold and mild air are likely from the central Rockies, central Plains, Tennessee Valley, mid-Atlantic and coastal New England," Pastelok said. "Temperatures may still average near to above normal in the coastal Northeast during the pattern."

A weather battleground is likely to set up. A strong temperature contrast from north to south will exist. After storms roll in from the Pacific, they will tap into moisture from the Gulf of Mexico.

The result may be a smorgasbord of precipitation ranging from rain and thunderstorms in the Deep South, snow across the northern tier and a wintry mix, including ice, in between.

There is the potential for the storms to be so close together that some communities may barely get a break of dry weather for a full calendar day.

The track of each storm will vary from one to the next, and it is too early to speculate on the exact track of each storm. The stronger storms will tend to track from southwest to northeast, rather than west to east.

Should the atmosphere fully capitalize on the stormy setup, there is the potential for drought-ending rain, flooding and perhaps severe weather on the storms' southern flank and heavy snow farther north.

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Where snow from one storm is wiped out by rain from another, there may be an enhanced risk of flooding. There is also the potential for the snowfall deficit in some areas from the Rockies to the mid-Atlantic coast to be erased by just one of the storms.

A buildup of ice may occur periodically where a shallow layer of arctic air sneaks in for a time.

The stormy pattern may cause widespread, frequent travel disruptions and frustrations to airline passengers. Where wintry precipitation dominates, there is the risk of some communities exceeding their budget for snow removal and running out of resources to combat the storms.

"More persistent colder air may expand to the Atlantic Seaboard toward the middle and latter part of February," Pastelok said.

The details on the pattern and individual storms will unfold in the coming days with updates to follow on AccuWeather mobile and desktop as well as in video coverage in apps.