AccuWeather forecasters warn that Ophelia will make landfall as a strengthening system in North Carolina early Saturday morning, threatening a slew of coastal hazards along the Eastern Seaboard this weekend.
Published Sep 21, 2023 10:39 AM EDT | Updated Sep 22, 2023 5:29 PM EDT
Tropical Storm Ophelia developed over the western Atlantic while churning in waters near the East Coast of the United States on Friday, and the system continued to intensify into the evening.
AccuWeather meteorologists continued to warn that the strengthening system will strike North Carolina early on Saturday morning, unleashing a weekend washout with the potential for flooding rain, strong winds, storm surge and dangerous seas from parts of the Southeast to the mid-Atlantic this weekend.
As Ophelia strengthened, a hurricane watch was issued for portions of eastern North Carolina on Friday afternoon. Tropical storm and storm surge warnings were in effect for portions of the coast from South Carolina to the Chesapeake Bay area of the mid-Atlantic. Ophelia was situated 120 miles southeast of Cape Fear, North Carolina, packing maximum sustained winds of 70 mph as of 5 p.m. EDT Friday -- just 4 mph shy of hurricane force and up from 60 mph just three hours prior.
Tropical Storm Ophelia on AccuWeather RealVue™ Satellite at 2 p.m. EDT Sept. 22, 2023.
Conditions continued to deteriorate across coastal areas of North Carolina ahead of Ophelia on Friday evening, as accurately predicted by AccuWeather forecasters, who have been warning for days about the system and its impacts.
Storm to strengthen while moving northward
Further development and strengthening of Ophelia is likely as it moves away from waters that were cooled by Hurricane Lee last week and moves into a plume of warm water called the Gulf Stream right along the Atlantic coast. Water temperatures in the region range from 80-85 degrees Fahrenheit. The critical minimum temperature for tropical development is about 80 degrees.
AccuWeather meteorologists grew more confident in recent days and, by midweek, began to refer to the system as a tropical wind and rainstorm to raise public awareness of the potential for significant impacts related to heavy rain and strong winds as well as rough seas and surf.
Landfall predicted in North Carolina
Ophelia is likely to make landfall in eastern North Carolina on Saturday morning, AccuWeather Hurricane Expert Dan Kottlowski said.
"There is even a chance the storm could reach hurricane intensity, should it remain over warm waters along the immediate coast long enough on Saturday," Rayno said.
Steering breezes are likely to continue to direct the storm northward, just inland of the coast.
Worst impacts expected along the coast, but rain to spread well inland
Ophelia will spread drenching downpours, strong gusts, pounding surf and ocean, sound and bay flooding northward along the Atlantic coast from North Carolina to New Jersey, southeastern New York and southern New England late this week and this weekend.
Because of the close proximity of the system, impacts will be much more significant when compared to Hurricane Lee which passed offshore last week.
The storm is expected to be a 1 on the AccuWeather RealImpact™ Scale for Hurricanes in terms of impacts in the United States due to the magnitude of wind damage, power outages, storm surge flooding, coastal erosion, freshwater flooding and disruptions to commerce and travel expected in the region.
"People in coastal areas should take this storm seriously," AccuWeather Chief On-Air Meteorologist Bernie Rayno said. "This is going to be a nasty and formidable storm."
Stiff breezes were already kicking up as far to the north as the New Jersey Cape on Friday morning. Windy conditions will continue to expand northward and increase into Saturday.
At peak, tropical-storm-force gusts of 40-60 mph will impact areas from eastern North Carolina to southern New England. In immediate coastal areas of North Carolina and southeastern Virginia, an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ gust of 75 mph, which is hurricane force, is possible.
Winds of this strength are likely to trigger localized to regional power outages. Some roads may become blocked with high water, fallen tree limbs and other debris.
Should the storm track right along the coast or just inland, a significant amount of water may be pushed into the Chesapeake and Delaware bays, which could result in moderate coastal flooding at times of high tide, as opposed to minor coastal flooding.
A storm surge of 1-3 feet will occur from southeastern New York to South Carolina. However, a storm surge of 3-6 feet is likely from North Carolina to southeastern Virginia with locally higher water levels.
One area where flooding could reach major proportions is in southeastern Virginia, where runoff from heavy rain teams up with storm surge from Friday night to Saturday night.
As with any tropical system that makes landfall, there is the potential for severe thunderstorms and the risk of a few tornadoes and waterspouts to be spawned. The greatest risk of severe weather will be near and to the east and northeast of where the storm moves inland.
Conditions may deteriorate quickly along the mid-Atlantic coast as the system strengthens and moves northward. From Friday to Saturday, dangerous seas are likely to develop for small craft, and rough surf may lead to beach erosion. Rip currents will become strong and frequent.
The storm will spread heavy rain far to the northwest at least as far as the Interstate 95 corridor of the mid-Atlantic, which means highway slowdowns, airline delays and perhaps flight cancellations. Urban flooding is likely.
Some of the major cities that will be affected include Richmond, Virginia; Washington, D.C.; Baltimore; Philadelphia; New York City and even Boston.
It is possible that a wedge of dry air may keep the heaviest rain confined to the southwest and to the southeast of the Big Apple, but rain is still likely to envelop the New York City metro area for a time on Saturday, AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Brett Anderson said.
That dry air may expand across southeastern New England later this weekend after an initial dose of rain on Saturday. The main zone of rain may persist over the mid-Atlantic and farther to the west during much of the weekend.
The combination of rain, breezy to windy conditions and other factors will send AccuWeather RealFeel® Temperatures into the 50s at times this weekend and fitting for the first couple of days of autumn.
"There is some question as to how far west the rain will get, and that depends on the exact track of the storm," Pydynowski said. Some data suggests that heavy rain may push as far to the west as the spine of the Appalachians and could even linger for a time, should the storm's forward speed slow down.
If a more inland track occurs, winds will tend to diminish rather quickly, but areas of rain may spill to the west of the Appalachians and persist over the mid-Atlantic region and the central Appalachians through the weekend.
Atlantic remains active thousands of miles off US coast
There is another area of interest for which AccuWeather has noted not only a high risk of tropical development but also the likelihood of becoming a hurricane in the coming days.
On Friday, that storm continued to show a significant amount of thunderstorm activity several hundred miles to the west-southwest of a group of islands off the coast of Africa called Cabo Verde. There is some indication that this feature will track farther to the west than the recent Hurricane Nigel did and could be of concern for the northeastern Caribbean islands, Bermuda and perhaps the United States with indirect impacts.
Meanwhile, once-Category 2 Hurricane Nigel is losing tropical characteristics over the North Atlantic. The system will continue on as a wind and rainstorm and could bring stormy conditions to part of the United Kingdom this weekend.
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